Do the Rockies Have a Shot?

That's been the question that the Colorado Rockies, despite winning 21 of their last 22 games, have had to face ever since they finished off the Arizona Diamondbacks. Before we even knew who was coming out of the AL, the Rockies were being written off. Normally I can't root for teams with that perennial underdog complex, but it's well-justified in Colorado's case.

Yes, I know the American League has been a lot better this year and that the Rockies barely made the playoffs in the weak National League. The Rockies still get to take the field and have a legitimate shot at beating the Red Sox. The problem is that for the Rockies to win, a lot of things need to go right. The Red Sox have more talent, especially in their pitching, and thus more margin for error.

It would seem that some intangibles are in the Rockies' favor. First, their hot streak should give them a ton of momentum. At the same time, they've had eight days off and will be very well-rested. These both sound like great advantages, but they don't go together...at all. The rest is nice, but it will kill all of Colorado's momentum. In other sports, the rest would be a considerable advantage, but this is baseball. There's no effective way to practice that equates to playing a real game, and the key elements are so based on rhythm that the time off can be devastating. Some would argue that the Red Sox will be fatigued coming in, but why would they be? They played a seven game series over nine days. Teams regularly play nine games in nine days in the regular season and they don't complain about it.

So you can scratch those advantages out. The rest actually serves as a disadvantage and momentum is overrated anyway. Even if momentum was a legitimate factor (and I'll admit it plays a small role. There is a psychological element in baseball), the Red Sox have more of it after rallying from a 3-1 deficit and by doing so more recently.

The Red Sox pitching is far superior to the Rockies, both their starters and in the bullpen. Jeff Francis has pitched very well, but he's no Josh Beckett. Curt Schilling isn't as good as he used to be, but he's still a reliable playoff pitcher, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has been mediocre in October, but he should be just as good as anyone Colorado can muster for Game 3. In the 'pen, Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima can effectively end a game in the 7th inning, whereas Colorado can send out Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas. Both have been effective, but neither can compare to Boston's relievers.

If the Rockies are going to win, it will be with their offense (and their fielding, to a degree). Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are excellent, and Kevin Youkilis was phenomenal in the ALCS, but after that the Red Sox offense is a little shaky. The main reason they were down 3-1 in the first place is because their other players weren't getting hits and driving in Manny, Ortiz, and Youkilis.

Colorado's offense is much more balanced. Matt Holliday is the favorite to win the MVP after a monster season. Todd Helton is still a very good hitter, even if he doesn't have the home run power that he used to. Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are both very dangerous, and Kaz Matsui has been excellent at the plate in the post-season. The Red Sox have superior pitching, but the Rockies make up for it, partially, with a more dangerous lineup.

The real determining factor in this series will be the ballparks. It is well-known that Fenway provides a major homefield advantage for the Red Sox. The Green Monster has been known to fool many opposing left fielders, while at the same time it gives Manny relatively little ground to cover. Boston's homefield advantage is well-established, but what could be more important is how the Red Sox handle Coors Field.

It's true that Coors Field is no longer the home run haven it used to be, now that the humidor has been implemented, but it is still a very spacious park which could play into the hands of the Rockies. While Colorado's outfielders all have very good range, this could be a problem for Boston. Manny doesn't cover a lot of ground and has been known to misplay balls and J.D. Drew is also a mediocre fielder. One option would be to start both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, which would probably give the Red Sox enough speed in the outfield to mask Manny's poor fielding, but this would be risky. While Drew has not hit especially well, save his grand slam in Game 6, his bat would be a welcome addition to the lineup considering that the Red Sox will have to sit either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis, as Ortiz is forced to play first base due to National League rules. The Red Sox infield defense will also be lackluster, with Ortiz at first, Julio Lugo at shortstop, and possibly Youkilis at third base. These defensive struggles and the offensive drain could well be enough for the Rockies to take two games in Denver.

All that said, the Red Sox are the better all-around team, with much better pitching, and they have homefield advantage in the series, which should be enough for them to win. Don't count the Rockies out, but I'm taking the Red Sox in 6.

Thoughts From Week 7

Colts 29, Jaguars 7: This game had great upset potential right up until David Garrard went down in the first half. Poor Jaguars fans. Just when they thought they were done watching terrible quarterback play, Garrard goes down and leaves them with Quinn Gray. This would've been a shutout if not for Maurice Jones-Drew's 65 yard kickoff return. The Jaguars are still a very good team, but they're clearly not as good as the Colts or Patriots, not that anyone else is.

Meanwhile, the Colts did a good job of limiting Jacksonville's running game, at least in the early going. The Jaguars actually averaged a very respectable 4.3 yards per carry, but they only ran the ball 27 times because the Colts got ahead early. Basically, the Colts are really good, which we already knew.

What I really want to know is, what was Tony Dungy thinking challenging that Jones-Drew TD? I can understand how he would want to challenge whether Jones-Drew fumbled, but it was pretty clear that the Jaguars came up with the ball after it came loose. There was never a moment when the Colts were even close to having possession. I know Dungy couldn't see that from the sideline, but don't they pay people to look at the replay and tell him whether or not to challenge it?

Broncos 31, Steelers 28: Pretty impressive win for the Broncos, knocking off the Steelers in dramatic fashion, which appears to be the only way they can win games. It's very hard to know what to make of Denver. They beat Pittsburgh, barely, but they beat Buffalo the same way. They're just a strange team. As for the Steelers, I'm still not convinced they're as good as many people seem to think. Sure, they're 4-2, but their only impressive win came at home against the Seahawks, who went on to lose to the Saints a week later. Other than that they've beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Plus, they've lost 2 of 3 on the road. Baltimore in Week 9 could be a good test, but other than that they don't face a tough team until Week 14, when they go to New England.

Bears 19, Eagles 16: What exactly compelled the Eagles to throw the ball 34 times and run it only 25 times? They averaged 4.9 yards per carry and Donovan McNabb was having a so-so game and, more importantly, they were leading for all but about five minutes. As an Eagles fan, I've already started planning for next year when Bill Cowher is coaching Kevin Kolb, and Brian Westbrook is splitting carries with Michael Turner. Here's hoping anyway.

As for the Bears, they look like the are on the rise. Brian Griese has been just what the doctor ordered. He's been efficient and hasn't turned the ball over (or at least not at Grossman levels). He's actually carried that offense to a degree, and he's had to, with Cedric Benson struggling. The Bears have a great shot to make the playoffs and maybe even take the division.

Cowboys 24, Vikings 14: This game wasn't as close as the score. The Vikings were lucky to be leading, as they only had one legitimate drive, capped off by (who else) Adrian Peterson running in a TD. The other touchdown came on a fumble recovery. (Two fumbles, if you count the one Griffin made on his own, then recovered.) Dallas may have some defensive deficiencies, but they can stop the run and are a far better team than the Vikings, and they showed it in the second half (as usual).

Titans 38, Texans 36: Rob Bironas for MVP? ...Yeah, I didn't think so either. I'm just in shock that Kerry Collins managed to win a game and only turn the ball over once.

Redskins 21, Cardinals 19: Ken Whisenhunt is my new favorite NFL coach. Even when his schemes don't work, they're always entertaining. Normally losing on a failed two-point conversion would be pretty unremarkable, but when Anquan Boldin is throwing an incomplete pass in the process? That's good TV. Granted, that play only would've worked in college, but I'm giving Whisenhunt points for creativity.

Giants 33, 49ers 15: The Giants have a pretty good defense. There I said it. They're beating bad teams the way they should. That said, I still think they'll get abused when they finally play someone worthwhile. They'll probably be a playoff team, but with nine wins, tops.

Patriots 49, Dolphins 28: I know I wasn't the only one who thought the Patriots would keep demolishing the Dolphins in the second half. I was expecting a 70 point game. Nice work Belichick, that'll teach the NFL to...enforce its rules? Something like that.

I feel really bad for the Dolphins, who have a great shot to go winless. They weren't a good team to begin with, but the Ronnie Brown injury is just unfair. They didn't deserve that. Now the fate of the season (which is already over anyway) depends on Cleo Lemon and Jesse Chatman. Good luck...

Lions 23, Buccaneers 16: Who would've thought when Jon Kitna faced Jeff Garcia, turnovers would be the difference...and Kitna would win? Good thing they were fumbles. Garcia's interception-less streak remains!

Bills 19, Ravens 14: Willis McGahee had a pretty good game against his former team (114 yards on 19 carries), but it wasn't enough. Not with Kyle Boller at the helm. Of course if you take out McGahee's 46 yard touchdown run, his performance was pretty average in terms of yards per carry. The real difference in this game was penalties, which cost the Ravens 91 yards compared to 25 for the Bills. Also notable is that Lee Evans FINALLY had a good game. Still no TDs, but 98 yards on five receptions is definitely a good sign. Look for a breakout game against the Jets next week.

Thoughts From Week 6

Giants 31, Falcons 10: Before everyone jumps on the Giants bandwagon, let's stop to consider who they beat in their four game winning streak. They get credit for edging Washington on the road, as they've been a solid team this year, but other than that they've beaten Philly, the Jets, and Atlanta A.V. (after Vick). The Eagles were missing Westbrook and most of their secondary, and yet were in it for most of the game. The Jets are just bad and Leon Washington has probably been their best player. The Falcons...two words: Joey Harrington.

The fact is, the Giants have lost to the only legitimate teams they've played. They'll probably extend their streak to six straight, with Trent Dilfer's 49ers and Cleo Lemon's Dolphins coming up, followed by the inevitable "Eli Manning is finally living up to his hype" talk. After that, the schedule gets a lot tougher. It reads as follows: Dallas, at Detroit, Minnesota, at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo, New England. Would anyone be shocked if they lost six of those eight games?

On another note, during the game an ESPN analyst pointed out that one of Eli's strengths is his "amnesia," or his ability to forget bad plays and move on. First off, I could already tell that Eli doesn't care when he messes up. He always has the same blank stare on his face at all times. Second, isn't a quarterback with "amnesia" just another way of saying that a quarterback is bad? I'd rather have a quarterback remember his interceptions and fumbles so he can, oh I don't know, learn from them! I hope Eli forgot about last season's second half collapse, or he's going to have a severe case of deja vu this year. Finally, if I want a quarterback with amnesia, the first guy I'm calling is Trent Green.

Saints 28, Seahawks 17: I know I'm not the only one who did a double take when Reggie Bush ran up the middle for 22 yards in the first quarter. This game really seemed to sum up Bush as an NFL player. When he's running intelligently, he can be a force. He's a lot like Brian Westbrook, with his elusiveness and speed. Yet he insists on dancing around in the backfield, as if he's back at USC. That doesn't work in the NFL.

On the other side, Shaun Alexander was abysmal, with 35 yards on 14 carries. It was one thing when he struggled against Pittsburgh, but the Saints? Pathetic. I'll give the Saints special teams some credit for jump-starting the team with that botched punt TD, and to Drew Brees who had his first productive game of the season, but this looked more like Seattle stumbling than anything else.

Patriots 48, Cowboys 27: I have to give the Patriots credit for this one. They beat a legitimate team on the road, really for the first time all year. I was never sold on Dallas, who also hadn't played a tough schedule in the first five weeks, but they are by far the toughest team the Patriots have faced. The true test will be when they play Indianapolis, but blowing out the Cowboys at home is pretty impressive.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys weak pass defense was once again exposed. To be fair, can a team starting Roy Williams be expected to effective cover anyone? His strategy on every play seems to be torpedoing himself at the nearest opposing player. Sometimes he connects and does some damage, but most of the time he whiffs or just grazes the guy. He's like a power hitter who swings as hard as he can on every pitch. For every 500 foot bomb, there are 50 strikeouts. So there you have it, Williams is the Wily Mo Pena of the NFL.

Chargers 28, Raiders 14: Looks like the Chargers are back. There's nothing particularly impressive about beating the Raiders (although they were leading the AFC West coming into the game), but Tomlinson reverted to his MVP form. Even more important was that LT had more carries than Philip Rivers had passing attempts. Could Norv Turner be learning, or was this just a random sequence of events that led to this play-calling? They say a bunch of monkeys with typewriters would eventually write Shakespeare, so I'm willing to believe that Turner could get lucky for two weeks in a row.

Jaguars 37, Texans 17: Jacksonville has very quietly achieved a 4-1 record and they have a great shot at beating the Colts in two weeks. That could potentially be a more difficult game than the Colts game against the Patriots, just because Jacksonville's running game is so strong. I'll admit I was overambitious when I picked the Jaguars to win the AFC South, but they are a legitimately good team nonetheless.

Eagles 16, Jets 9: The difference in the game was a 75 yard bomb to Kevin Curtis, which is great, but doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence in the Eagles offense. If this team is going anywhere they should be able to put up more than 16 points against the Jets. At this point I'd say the Eagles are looking at a 7-9 season, unless something drastically changes.

Buccaneers 13, Titans 10: The Madden Curse finally got to Vince Young. But really, who could've foreseen a young scrambling quarterback without much talent around him succumbing to injury?

Packers 17, Redskins 14: How about Santana Moss taking himself out of the game? I guess I can't blame him after he dropped several passes and had more rushing attempts than receptions (1-0), though his rushing and receiving yards were the same (0). Even Sean Taylor made a few catches, though he dropped two easy interceptions. Meanwhile, Brett Favre had a pretty lousy game (19-37, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) and yet the ESPN headline reads that he "led" the Packers to victory. I must've stepped out for that part of the game. Moss did more to help the Packers than Favre did.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 20: Maybe Kansas City really isn't that bad...oh wait, Cincinnati has no linebackers (no, they're not in jail...yet). Meanwhile, Tony Gonzalez should enjoy his TD record while he can because Antonio Gates is closing fast.

Vikings 34, Bears 31: Adrian Peterson is just ridiculous. The Bears defense isn't as good as it was last year, but no one should be able to run all over them just like that. It was like a team full of Adam Archuleta's out there.

Thoughts From Week 5

Cowboys-Bills: Doesn't this game just about sum up the Bills franchise? They nearly pulled off an incredible upset of an undefeated team, picking off four Tony Romo passes in the first half alone (plus one in the second half), only to blow a lead after a successful Dallas onside kick and two 53-yard field goals (only one counted, since Dick Jauron joined the kicker-icing fun that seems to have dominated the season). This game should raise some serious concerns for Dallas, as they clearly played down to an inferior opponent and Romo looked like he did in the second half of last season. My favorite moment had to be after the game ended, when the sideline reporter was interviewing Romo. The reporter asked what was going through his head when Nick Folk was lining up for the game-winning kick. Romo said something cliche, but we all know he was thinking "I am SO glad I'm not holding this one."

Bears-Packers: The Chicago offense finally showed signs of life, but more significantly, Brett Favre was back to his old gunslinging ways. Favre threw two interceptions and only one touchdown in his worst game of the season. Throwing INTs to the Bears isn't the worst thing in the world, but it was the way he threw them that was striking. The one caught by Brian Urlacher was just a terrible decision and it had no chance of working in the Packers' favor. Of course, as much as Favre struggled, the goat for the Packers has to be James Jones, who fumbled, not once, but twice in Chicago territory, keeping the Bears in the game and allowing Brian Griese to get in a rhythm. The Packers are still 4-1, but they have to be wary. Their defense shouldn't be allowing the Bears to score 27 points. They'll face a stiff test against Washington this week.

Ravens-49ers: I'll give Brian Billick a little credit, as Willis McGahee got 22 carries this week. Of course, Steve McNair threw the ball 43 times. Why throw so much in a close game when Baltimore had the lead from the 2nd quarter on? Granted, McGahee didn't have his best game, but McNair was far from dominant. Once again Matt Stover looked like the best player on the Ravens offense.

Chargers-Broncos: The Chargers were due for a game like this. Even Norv Turner couldn't make them terrible all season...right? Well they finally broke through in this one and the poor Broncos were the victims. It took four games for him to figure it out, but Norv finally did the smart thing and ran the ball down the throats of his opponent. Tomlinson and Michael Turner ran a combined 31 times, while Philip Rivers only threw 18 passes. That's a recipe for success for this team. Meanwhile, with the Raiders leading the division right now at 2-2 (I can't believe it either), the Chargers are now in great position to take the AFC West.

Buccaneers-Colts: No Marvin Harrison, no Joseph Addai? No problem for Peyton Manning and the Colts. Manning and backup running back Kenton Keith led the Colts to a 33-14 win over Tampa Bay. The Colts are 5-0 and are the only team that deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as the Patriots. This win should prove, however, that Manning is a better quarterback than Brady. Brady's had a great year, but it's because he (finally) has good talent around him. Manning showed that he doesn't need elite receivers or running backs to be great, although a lot of the credit has to go to the offensive line as well.

Lions-Redskins: Is Washington's offense that good or is the Lions defense just awful? It's the Lions. Jason Campbell is an up-and-coming quarterback, but a banged-up receiving corps should not have been able to light up anyone to the tun of 34 points. The Lions, meanwhile, have to find a way to protect Jon Kitna, who may be wearing down from all the sacks he's taken lately.

Seahawks-Steelers: This was a statement game for the Steelers, coming off a loss to Arizona. They look like a great team, especially at home, and flat-out dominated the Seahawks, shutting them out. Meanwhile, the Seahawks may have been exposed as an overrated team. They could still win the NFC West (someone has to), but after that performance I like Arizona's chances.

Cardinals-Rams: At least the Rams figured out how to score, especially without Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Don't expect it to last. Especially not against Baltimore next week. What's more interesting is that Kurt Warner is now the starting quarterback in Arizona now that Matt Leinart is done for the year. Warner had been more successful anyway and that success should continue as long as the offensive line continues to be effective.

Thoughts From Week 4

Patriots-Bengals: Who would've thought the Patriots would have their lowest scoring game against that vaunted Bengals defense? Not that it mattered as the game was pretty much a joke. So are the Patriots the best team in the league? It's hard to make a case why they wouldn't be. The Colts, Packers, and Cowboys are still undefeated, but the Patriots have been far more dominant than all those teams. The one knock on the Patriots is that they haven't played anyone good yet. Yes, they've played the Chargers and Bengals, but both those teams are 1-3. In fact the Patriots have only played 1-3 teams thus far. If I were ranking teams, I'd have to put the Patriots #1 for now, but let's see how they play Dallas on the road in two weeks before we start the 16-0 talk.

Eagles-Giants: This was one of the worst-coached games I've ever seen at the professional level. What is wrong with Andy Reid? I can't blame McNabb or the receivers for this game (though I'm sure plenty of people will). It's pretty hard to throw from your back. I can't even give Osi Umenyiora that much credit for his six sacks. It was an impressive individual effort, but any properly coached team would have double teamed him after the first sack or two. I was screaming for someone to give Winston Justice some help in the first quarter. Umenyiora was still racking up sacks in the fourth quarter. This is the first time I truly questioned whether Andy Reid should still be the Eagles head coach. Of course, this game also proved that Brian Westbrook is the Eagles most valuable player, if there was any doubt.

Chiefs-Chargers: Just when it looked like Tomlinson was back, the Chargers self-destructed and were outscored 24-0 in the second half...at home...against the CHIEFS! There is no excuse for any of that. Norv Turner has ruined a very talented team, pretty much single-handedly. Fire him now!

Steelers-Cardinals: This game should shut up everyone who counted the Steelers among the NFL's elite after they went 3-0 against bad teams. Nice revenge game for Ken Whisenhunt, as his two-quarterback gameplan and some solid defense gave the Steelers their first loss of the season. Maybe this game was a fluke for Pittsburgh and had a lot to do with Whisenhunt's knowledge of his former team. Next week against Seattle should give us a much better sense of just how good this team is.

Colts-Broncos: Just goes to show that it doesn't matter who you put around Peyton Manning as long as the offensive line is intact. Both Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai left the game and Manning still lit up the Broncos defense. Can't wait to see the Colts play the Patriots.

Seahawks-49ers: Trent Dilfer. (That's all the punchline I need.)

Packers-Vikings: Did you hear?! Brett Favre broke the touchdown record! Thanks to ESPN for ingraining that unspectacular play in my head by showing it every five seconds. Good for Favre, it's an impressive milestone, but did anyone else notice that the amazing reborn Packers only beat Minnesota by a touchdown?

Bears-Lions: Well, the Brian Griese experiment hasn't helped much. Still, he's no worse than Grossman. None of this would be happening if they had kept Thomas Jones. The real disappointment has been Cedric Benson.

Raiders-Dolphins: Daunte Culpepper made the Dolphins look pretty stupid. You mean it takes two years to recover from a torn ACL? Ohhhhh! Enjoy Trent Green. Also, Justin Fargas is this week's Knee-Jerk Fantasy Pickup of the Week.

Rams-Cowboys: Every member of the Rams defense should be sentenced to a week in Arena Football after that Tony Romo fumble-recovery-first down. Pathetic.

Ravens-Browns: Willis McGahee had 14 carries. McNair had 53 passing attempts. That pretty much sums it up.

Texans-Falcons: If anyone was left on the Texans bandwagon after they lost to the Colts, they're gone now.

Phillies Are NL East Champs

I've been avoiding writing about the Phillies since July, partly out of frustration and partly out of a fear of jinxing them. I'm not superstitious, but, to quote Michael Scott, "I am a little stitious." That said, I won't take any credit for the Phillies incredible comeback (coupled with the Mets collapse) that allowed them to take the National League East and make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

While some might argue that the Colorado Rockies have actually had the more impressive run, winning 12 in a row and forcing a one-game playoff with the San Diego Padres, the Phillies have had far more to overcome. First off, the NL East is far more competitive than the NL West. The Mets and Braves are both very good teams and, as the Mets found out the hard way, the Marlins and Nationals have the talent to steal some games. The NL West is talented, but the D-backs have clearly had a good amount of luck this year, as they have been outscored on the season. The Padres can't hit and the Rockies pitching is nothing special. The Dodgers are an average team, and the Giants are terrible. Yes, they had four teams in the playoff hunt and technically have three that will be playing in October, but the Mets, Phillies, or Braves all would have won that division.

Also, don't forget all the injuries the Phillies faced. Any Phillies fan knows this, but just to recap: Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia went down early and were lost for the season, Brett Myers and Tom Gordon both missed time, Ryan Howard spent two weeks on the DL early on, Chase Utley missed a month, as did Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson is still out and may not return for the playoffs, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Michael Bourn also hit the DL. There were, in fact, a few "productive" injuries, such as the ones to Adam Eaton and Rod Barajas. The Phillies were better off without those two and here's hoping that they never don Phillies uniforms again. The starting lineup has featured Zach Segovia, Fabio Castro, J.D. Durbin, J.A. Happ, Russell Branyan, and Chris Roberson (though I would still take any of them over Eaton and Barajas).

The only Phillies to stay healthy were Jimmy Rollins and Jamie Moyer. (I would include Pat Burrell, but I would like to pretend he was injured in the first half. That's the only way I can justify it.) It was fitting that Rollins and Moyer were key to Sunday's division-clinching win. Rollins was locked in from the start and really jump-started the offense. Moyer was his usual self. He worked the corners (and was benefited by a wide strike zone) and forced the Nationals hitters to beat themselves. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, but the suddenly effective three-man bullpen finished the game for him. Gordon got out of trouble in the 6th, J.C. Romero pitched two scoreless innings, and Myers finished it off with a called third strike to Wily Mo Pena.

Of course, the Phillies had some help. A lot of pressure was taken off as the Mets were hammered by the Marlins, who clearly had it in for them after Saturday's game, in which Miguel Olivo charged Jose Reyes and was ejected and suspended. Dontrelle Willis was pulled in the third inning, despite giving up on one run. This is not a move a team out of contention would normally make with a young pitcher in the last game of the season. The Marlins also brought in closer Kevin Gregg to finish off the game, despite holding a seven-run lead.

So now Phillies fans are in a state of disbelief, not just because it's the Phillies who celebrated their 10,000th loss in the same year they have ended their playoff drought, but because this team has no business being in the playoffs. The Phillies have been hit just as hard, if not harder, by injuries as the Cardinals, who were unable to finish with a .500 record despite playing in an exceptionally weak division. That's not a knock on the Cardinals, but a tribute to this Phillies team. Hard as it is, I have to give Charlie Manuel some credit for keeping them in the race. He should not be Manager of the Year, as he is an abysmal strategist, but the Phillies could have been in worse hands.

Can the Phillies keep it up and win in the playoffs? Who knows. This has the feel of a storybook season and a championship would be a happy ending for Philadelphia's long-suffering fans, but, as anyone in Philly will be sure to tell you, it is still the Phillies. That said, after this season, you gotta believe.

Marion Unlikely to be Traded

Shawn Marion has recently requested a change of scenery, but don't expect the Suns to accommodate him. He has said in the past that he would be interested in being the best player on a worse team, so that perhaps he could get some of the recognition he deserves. It's hard to see the Suns trading him, but if so there are some decent options available. Andrei Kirilenko comes to mind, as does Lamar Odom, but neither of these players could make Phoenix any better.

The fact is that it's hard to envision any player, save someone at the level of Kevin Garnett, could give the Suns even value, simply because Marion is a perfect fit for the Suns. He's one of the top defenders in the league, as well as one of the most versatile, on a team that is otherwise fairly poor defensively. He is extremely athletic and is adept and running and finishing the fastbreak. Marion also has a good enough three-point shot to take advantage the openings created by Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. He creates mismatches on the offensive end with his quickness and athleticism, but is strong enough and a good enough rebounder that he is not exploited on the other end.

If the Suns trade him, they will not acquire a player who fills all these needs. If they were to swap him for Kirilenko, they would get a good defender and a great shot-blocker, but an inferior rebounder and shooter. Odom would provide better shooting, but he is a worse defender and he has had trouble staying healthy in recent years. Of the two, Kirilenko would be preferable due to his defense, but it's hard to see Marion having much success in Utah.

The best trade might be a three way deal, sending Marion to LA, Odom to Utah, and Kirilenko to Phoenix (with a couple throw-ins involved to make the numbers work). Marion would give Kobe rebounding and defense, as well as some scoring, Odom would give Utah some more offense and a better shooter, as well as some flexibility, and Kirilenko would (for the most part) replace Marion's defense and might even be able to run the point for a brief time now and again while Nash takes a breather.

That said, Marion is still a far better fit for the Suns and any trade would be a downgrade. Odds are the Suns will hold off on a trade unless Marion's sulking becomes a major distraction. If that is the case, the Suns have to make a move and try to win a championship while Nash is still at his best. Nash seems to be aging gracefully, since he doesn't rely on athleticism to be a great player, but he is 33 and can't be expected to put up MVP-caliber numbers through his mid-to-late 30's. The Suns can hardly afford to have a disruptive Marion waste another great year from Nash.

Still, no need for Suns fans to panic. Most likely Marion will come to his senses and will remain in Phoenix. The Matrix has to realize that being The One isn't all it's cracked up to be. Just ask Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce, and Kobe Bryant (who are all far more talented than Marion) how that worked out for them.

Thoughts From Week 3

Titans-Saints: What happened to the Saints? The offensive line has been terrible. I still expect better from Drew Brees, but he was under pressure all night, and the Titans defense is not that great. The defense was bad last year and may have actually gotten worse. All in all, a pretty ugly game.

The most entertaining moment was when one of the commentators (I think it was Mike Tirico) called Keith Bulluck's second interception of the night and then, in the same breath, said that Bulluck's mother abandoned him when he was twelve years old. It's one thing to tell that story, but Tirico said it the same way he would've said that Bulluck is in his 8th year out of Syracuse. I can't wait until Tirico calls a Lakers game this year just to see if he says "And the fade-away is good for Lamar Odom, whose infant son died two years ago."

Another great moment was during the post-game press conference when Reggie Bush said that the Saints "can either go left or go right." That just cracked me up because going left and right is about all Bush does on the field.

Cowboys-Bears: How much longer can the Bears start Rex Grossman? On one hand, I'm not sure how much better Brian Griese is, but at this point, how much worse could he be? Even Kyle Orton didn't lose them games the way Grossman is this year. To be fair, the Bears are really missing Thomas Jones. Cedric Benson looks to me like an over-hyped LenDale White. But still, something has to be done about Grossman. I mean he threw an interception to Roy Williams. ROY WILLIAMS! I'm pretty confident that Detroit's Roy Williams would be better in coverage than the one in Dallas, but even he could read Grossman without any trouble.

Also, Adam Archuleta is terrible. All he did Sunday night was miss tackles. Not to mention, he got leveled on a block from Sam Hurd. For the record, Hurd weighs 195 lbs.

And is it just me or would that Tony Romo ESPN ad be about a gazillion times funnier if the Sportscenter anchor tossed a pen or clipboard at him and he fumbled it? I feel cheated.

Giants-Redskins: The Giants still stink. The Redskins lost this game more than the Giants won it. Clinton Portis looked worse every time he touched the ball and Jason Campbell proved that he's not ready to carry the offense. The Redskins could be a pretty good team this year because of the defense, but it doesn't look like they're capable of scoring more than 20 points. And don't tell me it was the Giants' defense. Expect the Eagles to light them up next week. Speaking of the Eagles...

Lions-Eagles: Kevin Curtis must have set a record for infuriated fantasy owners. After doing nothing in the first two weeks, he exploded for 221 yards and 3 TDs. I guess the Eagles were saving up their offense for this one. Westbrook was just as good, with 221 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs, and he was supposed to be injured. Meanwhile, McNabb completed 80% of his passes. I bet a white quarterback would've completed 90% (sorry Donovan, but you were asking for that), but that's still a pretty good game.

Jon Kitna had an excellent game, even though it wasn't enough to keep his team close, but now we have a better sense of who the Lions are. Great offense, zero defense. They'll out-gun a few teams, but I wouldn't expect the ten wins Kitna promised.

Browns-Raiders: Not much to say about this game except that Lane Kiffin is clearly a quick learner. Nice job icing the kicker after Shanahan abused him last week. Maybe there is hope for the Raiders.

Colts-Texans: The Texans surprised me in that they actually made a game of this. Yes, they came in 2-0 and were the home team, but nobody gave them much of a chance, especially with Andre Johnson out. Could they be this year's Saints?

Cardinals-Ravens: The Ravens defense is clearly not what it used to be. Seventeen points in the fourth quarter? From Kurt Warner? That's inexcusable even though Baltimore won in the end. Meanwhile, I'm liking Ken Whisenhunt more and more. Is using Warner as the no-huddle quarterback good for Matt Leinart's confidence? No. But the Cardinals just need to win games at this point. Kudos to Whisenhunt for thinking outside the box.

Rams-Bucs: Steven Jackson has the same number of touchdowns this season as he has in that commercial. Amazing how the consensus top three fantasy running backs have just one rushing touchdown between them.

Bills-Patriots: The Patriots three-game streak of scoring exactly 38 points will come to a halt this week when they go to Cincinnati. They'll score at least 48.

On a side note, Lee Evans has five receptions in three games. How long can this go on?

Chargers-Packers: When is the last time a coach has destroyed a great team like Norv Turner is this year? It's only Week 3, but his seat has to be getting awfully hot right now. Schottenheimer has never looked so good.

I have to give the Packers credit though. While they're not going to be an elite team, they could easily take the NFC North. Who are they competing with? The Bears can't score, the Lions can't defend, and the Vikings can't do much of anything. A few injuries could change things quickly for the Packers, who aren't that deep, but they've got a great chance to win the division.

Thoughts From Week 2

Eagles-Redskins: The Eagles looked pretty bad Monday night. Donovan McNabb showed some positive signs. He was moving reasonably well and looked like the McNabb of old in the 4th quarter. If only he figured that out earlier in the game. Credit the Redskins defense for covering the Eagles receivers, but the old, confident McNabb would have put up at least 25 points on that team. It can't be helping that he's got Kevin Kolb in his rearview mirror. It seemed like every incomplete pass was followed by a shot of Kolb on the sideline. Not that it matters. This team is McNabb's until he gets injured or the Eagles are completely out of contention.

I'm starting to wonder if the Eagles system was ever ideal for McNabb. The West Coast offense requires more accuracy than arm strength, which is why Jeff Garcia was able to step in and have so much success last year. I'm a McNabb fan, but it seems like his talents could be far better utilized if he had a big play receiver (who's not a lunatic) and played in an offense that featured more throws downfield. Imagine if he was the quarterback in Detroit or Arizona. He'd be lighting up the scoreboard every week. That said, the Eagles look like they are capable of being a very good team. The defense is better than last year's and the wide receivers are at least as good. If McNabb can play like he did in the 4th quarter, the Eagles can be very dangerous.

Bengals-Browns: Jamal Lewis rushing for 200 yards has to be considered one of the biggest surprises of the year. That said, we all know why it happened. The Bengals defense is abysmal. Lewis and Derek Anderson are not that good, sorry Cleveland fans. How many games will it take for Anderson to throw another five touchdowns? I'm thinking four, at least. I just feel bad for Carson Palmer. I mean what more can you ask from him?

By the way, Chad Johnson looked genuinely dejected after he received a rude welcome to the Dawg Pound. Honestly, Chad, what were you expecting? Don't get me wrong, I love Chad Johnson, but he had to know the Browns fans wouldn't exactly be happy to see him.

Packers-Giants: Nothing made me happier than watching Jeremy Shockey screw his team over when he was penalized for spiking the ball. I took great pleasure in the Giants' demise. The Eagles may be 0-2, but the Giants are an uglier 0-2. This game also proved just how awful the Giants defense is. Tony Romo got most of the credit for Dallas' success in Week 1, but it clearly had a lot to do with the Giants inability to tackle. There is no excuse for letting Favre put 35 points on the board.

Bills-Steelers: When will Lee Evans make a play? I've got him in my fantasy league and he's killing me. I'll have to wait at least until Week 4. Hard to imagine he'll go off against the Patriots. By the way, I love ESPN's headline on the game recap: "Drained Bills lose first game since Everett's injury." This game had nothing to do with Kevin Everett. If the Bills had been playing the Giants this week, they would've won and the headline would be "Bills win big for Everett." All that off the field stuff is so overblown. The Falcons aren't 0-2 because they miss Michael Vick, it's because they're bad. End of story.

Saints-Bucs: What happened to the Saints? Well for one thing, Reggie Bush has to remember he's in the NFL. He struggled early last year as well (though it seems like everyone forgot about that) and it's because he insists on running side-to-side all the time. Every so often that will work, but most of the time you won't have too much success. Deuce McAllister is going to need some more carries; ten isn't nearly enough. It also doesn't help that the defense still stinks. They're not a bad team and they'll come around, but we could be looking at a disappointing season.

Raiders-Broncos: Mike Shanahan straight out owned the Lane Kiffin. Was it cheap? Yeah, kind of. But the way he pulled the ref aside and perfectly timed his timeout was simply a veteran coach showing up his young counterpart. Give the Raiders some credit though. They don't look half-bad for an 0-2 team. No one expected them to hang with the Broncos, let alone take them to overtime.

Jets-Ravens: What is wrong with Brian Billick? This is the second week in a row when he's called passes when all he needed to do was run some clock. It was one thing to do that last year when he had a healthy Steve McNair and a washed up Jamal Lewis running the ball, but McNair looked awful last week and Kyle Boller started against the Jets, AND he's got Willis McGahee now. What's the point of acquiring a stud running back if you aren't going to use him? If not for a few dropped passes late in the 4th quarter, the Jets probably would have won that game.

Chargers-Patriots: What part of "MVP" doesn't Norv Turner understand? You've got a young quarterback on the road against a good defense and the MVP in the backfield, so you start the game with a pass? It didn't help that the defense looked flat for most of the game. The Patriots deserve credit for the win, they are clearly the best in the league until someone (maybe the Colts) prove otherwise. Still, it really seemed like Turner spent more time safeguarding his playbook than he did preparing his team.

Oden to Miss 2007-08 Season

After everything seemed to be looking up for the Portland Trailblazers, things took a turn for the worse today when it will be announced that Greg Oden is going to have knee surgery and likely miss his rookie season. This is the same surgery that transformed Chris Webber from one of the league's best athletes and most versatile players to a slow, immobile big man who gets by on jump shooting and passing.

Now before Portland fans begin to panic, let's remember that Webber was much older when he had this surgery and a complete recovery is possible, just ask Amare Stoudemire. According to a report by ESPN.com, the damage is relatively minor and a full recovery is expected in six to twelve months. Nonetheless, this puts a damper on a team that many were looking forward to watching, with Oden joining Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy and a number of other talented young players.

If Oden is able to fully recover, this may not turn out so badly for the Blazers in the long run. There would have been tremendous pressure on this team to improve and it is debatable whether such a young team would have been able to play .500 basketball, let alone make a playoff run as some analysts had predicted. This will alleviate that pressure and free up playing time for LaMarcus Aldridge (who would have started anyway), Channing Frye, Josh McRoberts, and perhaps even Travis Outlaw, letting Portland find out what pieces they really have to place around Oden and Roy.

This will also likely leave the Blazers as a lottery team once more, giving them a chance at another high draft pick. With some luck, and without the consistent scoring that Zach Randolph provided, the Blazers could even land a top five pick. Who knows, the 2008-09 Blazers could feature Oden AND O.J. Mayo. Obviously the chances of this occurring are pretty slim, but the point is that the franchise is far from ruined.

Of course, if Oden is unable to regain the full range of athleticism he's displayed in high school and college, it's hard to know how good of a player he can be. With his offensive game still developing, Oden is primarily a defensive force right now. His greatest strength is his shot-blocking, which is attributed to his height and athleticism, as well as impeccable timing. He can still be an effective shot-blocker if he loses some athletic ability because of that timing, but he will not be the same player he was in college.

One has to wonder how the recovery process will impact Oden's game. When his right wrist was injured during the Ohio State season, it forced him to use his left hand, which ought to pay off dividends in the long run. Similarly, Oden may take some of his recovery time to improve other skills, such as shooting. It is hardly necessary for a player like Oden to be a strong jump-shooter, but it certainly couldn't hurt. Obviously there is no guarantee that he works on this skill and this is purely speculation, but it seems a safe bet that Oden will be doing something basketball-related during all this downtime.

Portland fans have much to fear, but Oden is in as good a position as anyone to make a full recovery from knee surgery and help the Blazers become serious contenders down the road.