Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Shaq Heads West

In what has to be the most confusing trade of the season, if not the decade, the Suns have acquired Shaquille O'Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. Shaq will give the Suns the most imposing frontcourt in the league, but there are many questions as to how what kind of fit Shaq will be in the Suns fast-paced offense. It's hard to picture him running up the court with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.

O'Neal should make the Suns far more dangerous in their halfcourt sets, though one has to wonder whether he'll get in the way of Stoudemire. A few years ago, Shaq would have been able to draw double-teams and space the floor for the Suns' shooters, but with the way he has struggled this season, posting career-lows in points and rebounds, no one is going to leave Nash or Leandro Barbosa alone on the perimeter to swarm Shaq.

This move could also be disastrous for the Suns defense, as the Suns may have provided the answer to the question "What defense could possibly be worse than one with Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry?" According to Ric Bucher, the Suns believe Shaq will help them out defensively, but what is the logic behind that? Sure, Shaq's size should help him keep opposing big men out of the paint, but who are these big men exactly that rely so strictly on size that Shaq is going to lock them down? Maybe he can slow down Andrew Bynum and Tyson Chandler, but it's hard to see him shutting down big men who have reliable mid-range games, such as Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Carlos Boozer. He'll also be a major liability in transition defense. Meanwhile, Amare Stoudemire was already a very poor defender. Maybe he'll benefit from defending power forwards, but it's hard to see the Suns having any sort of effective post defense with the two of them on the floor.

The biggest problem with this move is the loss of Marion. Marion was an ideal fit for the Suns. He was able to defend the power forward position (plus just about every other position, if needed) while creating mismatches on offense with his quickness, athleticism, and shooting ability. By all accounts Marion was struggling to get along with Stoudemire and chemistry issues forced this trade, but if Marion was such a troublemaker, it sure didn't show up in the standings. It should be noted that Banks will also be missed (to a far lesser degree) as he had provided Nash with a little much-needed rest and aside from Nash he was the only point guard on the team. Now Barbosa will have to take up point guard duties when Nash is on the bench, or in case of an injury. If such an injury occurs, it will be up to Barbosa, and then likely Grant Hill and Boris Diaw, to run the offense. That could spell trouble.

There is no question that Shaq will be very motivated to make this trade pay off for Phoenix. He'll do his best to prove his doubters wrong, especially when he's competing in the same division as Kobe Bryant. Maybe the Diesel has something left in the tank after all.

This should be a decent move for the Heat, who get out from under Shaq's massive contract. Whether Marion can make the Heat any better this year is a moot point. His contract expires after next season, which will make him an extremely valuable trading chip next year if Miami decides that he and Dwyane Wade aren't a suitable 1-2 punch.

Regardless of how it turns out for the Suns, David Stern has to be smiling about this trade. After the Lakers' acquisition of Pau Gasol, the Suns upped the ante by acquiring the self-proclaimed MDE (Most Dominant Ever), and rumors are swirling that Jason Kidd could be heading to the Mavs next. There is no doubt that a Suns-Lakers playoff series would draw huge ratings and rightly so (though the ratings for Sunday's Lakers-Heat game will suffer).

The stakes have all risen dramatically now that Shaq is heading back to the Western Conference. Now the pressure is on Mike D'Antoni to make it work. If he can keep the Suns playing at the same level with Shaq on board, he deserves Coach of the Year. If not, Steve Kerr could be looking for work at season's end.

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