Monday, March 24, 2008

MLB Preview: AL Central

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Detroit Tigers
Hitting: The Tigers offense was excellent last year, led by Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Gary Sheffield, and Carlos Guillen. Add Miguel Cabrera to the mix and the Tigers should have the best lineup in baseball. Grade: A+
Pitching: Justin Verlander is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but after him there are few question marks. Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman combined to go 20-22 last year, Kenny Rogers is 43 and only started 11 games in '07, and newly-acquired Dontrelle Willis posted a career-worst 5.17 ERA. The bullpen is also cause for concern. Todd Jones saved 38 games, but did so with a 4.26 ERA, and while Joel Zumaya appears to be waiting in the wings, he only pitched in 28 games in 2007, due to injury. Grade: C+
Fantasy Sleeper: Edgar Renteria - He always seems to fly under the radar, but he'll hit for a good average and should get plenty of runs and RBI chances in this lineup.
X-Factor: Dontrelle Willis - He's coming off a terrible 2007 campaign, but if he can regain his 2005 form, he can take some pressure off of Verlander.
Overview: Much like the Yankees, the Tigers have the offensive talent to power their way to a division title, even if their pitching isn't dominant. Of course, there has to be some concern about whether or not the Tigers can stay healthy. Sheffield and Ordonez both have injury histories and Granderson will start the season on the DL, but even if a few of their hitters are out for brief stretches, they have the depth to compete. The key will be their starting pitching. If Willis and one of Bonderman, Robertson, or Rogers can step up, the Tigers could be the team to beat in 2008.

Cleveland Indians
Hitting: Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez lead a balanced attack that should be among the league's better offenses. Hafner's power dropped off last year, but he should return to hit at least 30 home runs. Grade: B+
Pitching: C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona is as good a 1-2 punch as there is and the 3-4-5 of Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Cliff Lee should be enough to keep the Indians in most games. While Joe Borowski isn't exactly a dominant closer, the middle relief is excellent, with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez. Grade: B+
Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Garko - Hafner has far more hype, but Garko actually posted a better OPS and, at 27, should continue to improve.
X-Factor: Fausto Carmona - Carmona had a phenomenal regular season, but melted down in the ALCS to the tune of a 16.50 ERA. The Indians have to hope there aren't any lingering effects.
Overview: The experience gained from last year's success should prove valuable, as this is still a relatively young team. If Carmona can bounce back from his disastrous ALCS showing, the Indians will be a very dangerous playoff team. Of course, to stay ahead of Detroit, they will need Hafner to recover his power. Another division title is possible, but Detroit might have too much firepower.

Chicago White Sox
Hitting: The White Sox bring back sluggers Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko, and Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera will join the fray, giving Chicago a very potent attack. That said, age and durability are concerning for all except Swisher. Grade: B-
Pitching: While they still have three of the starters from their 2005 Championship team, their production has dropped off considerably. Jose Contreras is the worst offender, posting a 5.57 ERA in 2007 (compared to 3.61 in 2005). The bullpen should be stronger than last year, as Bobby Jenks is joined by Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel. Grade: C-
Fantasy Sleeper: Carlos Quentin - He's coming off a very poor season, but he's only 25 and has good raw skills. Perhaps a move to hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field will do him some good.
X-Factor: Nick Swisher - If he can play to his potential, he's capable of hitting 40+ HRs in this ballpark. That production could go a long way towards getting the White Sox back in the hunt.
Overview: Chicago has a lot of offensive talent, but it's not getting any younger. The window may have closed for this team to compete for a division title, but there is still enough left in the tank for them to finish above .500 and, if all goes well, perhaps make a wildcard run.

Minnesota Twins
Hitting: Torii Hunter will be greatly missed, but Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer can still put up some great individual numbers. The Twins will also look to Delmon Young, but he is coming off an unremarkable season in Tampa and moves to a park that favors pitchers. Grade: C-
Pitching: With Johan Santana gone, the pressure will be on Francisco Liriano to take over as the staff ace. The bullpen will be highlighted by closer Joe Nathan and set-up man Pat Neshek, but there is little proven talent to speak of. Grade: C
Fantasy Sleeper: Carlos Gomez - He was the biggest name acquired in the Santana deal (though that's not saying much) and he will likely start in center field. With his blazing speed, he's a lock to steal 30+ bases if he can hold the job.
X-Factor: The other four starting pitchers - We all know Liriano can pitch, but what can be expected from the rest of the rotation? Their development will largely impact Minnesota's plans for the future.
Overview: The Twins finished just below .500 last year, and then they traded away their two best players. Regardless of whether this was the right thing to do, Santana and Hunter will be sorely missed and it's hard to imagine the Twins sniffing .500 this season. If their young players develop quickly, they could make a run at third place, but more likely they'll be fighting with Kansas City to avoid the bottom of the division.

Kansas City Royals
Hitting: The Royals have very little to offer in this department. Jose Guillen should be good for another 20+ HRs and Billy Butler might approach 20 HRs with enough at-bats, but that's about it. Alex Gordon showed some promise late in the season, but he hit only .247 for the year. Grade: D
Pitching: Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zach Greinke all posted sub-4.00 ERAs and Bannister actually managed a winning record (12-9), which is no mean feat in KC. Joakim Soria was impressive filling in for Octavio Dotel as the closer, with 17 saves, 2.48 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. Grade: C-
Fantasy Sleeper: Joakim Soria - Closers are always valuable and Soria looked like the real deal last year. The Royals won't win enough games for him to rack up saves, but he should maintain a low ERA and WHIP.
X-Factor: Alex Gordon - Gordon struggled immensely in his highly-touted rookie year, but if he can make some strides in his sophomore season, the Royals could have a franchise player to build around.
Overview: The Royals are moving in the right direction as they build around their pitching staff. Meche, Bannister, Greinke, and Soria are a good start, but they don't have the hitting to compete in this division. There's some hope for the future, but Kansas City still has a ways to go.

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