Saturday, January 3, 2009

The Expectations Power Rankings, 2007-2008 1-16

16. [+1] Oakland Raiders (2007: 4-12, 2008: 5-11) - Al Davis missed his second game in more than four decades and the Raiders won their week 17 matchup 31-24 against the Bucs in Tampa, knocking them out of the playoffs. Coincidence? It's the same old story with the Raiders; the trickle-down effect from the top has the franchise in a total mess. The Raiders have a personnel-based roster lacking the scheme to exploit their talents, and like the Jets they found out the hard way that throwing money at the situation (Tommy Kelly, Javon Walker) won't buy you success. On the bright side, 2007 first-overall pick JaMarcus Russell showed flashes of talent and 2008 fourth-overall pick Darren McFadden mostly lived up to the hype before he got injured. The future of the franchise hinges on how well these two turn out.

15. [+1] New Orleans Saints (2007: 7-9, 2008: 8-8) - I'm not sure a bad team has ever been so entertaining to watch. On offense, Drew Brees came up just 16 yards shy of Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record- and he would have had it if the last throw of the season had connected instead of landing at the feet of two Carolina Panthers. The Saints led the league in offensive points per game, and they needed it since they were in the bottom quarter in defensive points allowed. The amazing thing about the 2008 Saints is that they managed to get to 8-8; Brees turned crappy receivers into stars while dealing with a trip to London as well as a re-emergence of division rivals. During the upcoming draft, the Saints should pick up where they left off last season and continue to get some young talent in the secondary.

14. [+1] Denver Broncos (2007: 7-9, 2008: 8-8) - The Broncos' 2008 season will go down as one of the biggest collapses of all time. They held a 3-game lead on the second-place Chargers with three weeks to play for the division title and a home playoff game, yet somehow they managed to lose both games before meeting San Diego in the season finale and getting embarrassed 52-21. In a move that surprised nearly everyone, owner Pat Bowlen fired 14-year head coach Mike Shanahan. Once again, the Broncos' Achilles Heal was the defense, which despite having several high-profile names (DeWayne Robertson, Champ Bailey, Dre' Bly) managed to finish 26th in pass defense and 27th in rush defense. To make matters worse, in every game where the defense was giving them a chance to catch up the offense sputtered. Part of this could have been due to 6 Denver running backs put on IR throughout the season, but come on- 10 points against the Raiders in week 12? The Broncos are going to be a team to watch in the offseason, as they've got so many holes it's hard to even know where they'll begin to clean up the mess.

13. [+1] Philadelphia Eagles (2007: 8-8, 2008: 9-6-1) - Despite tying the lowly Bengals and losing a couple really weird games in bad ways, the Eagles snuck into the playoffs and knocked the Cowboys out in week 17. As usual, fans have been calling for Donovan McNabb's head despite the shortage of quality quarterbacks and the team's success with him under center. Andy Reid- "The Bloated One"- continues to take Philadelphia fans on the playcalling roller coaster- running the ball 10 times one week and 30 times the next. What part of "Brian Westbrook needs 20+ touches per game" is so hard to understand?

12. [+1] Arizona Cardinals (2007: 8-8, 2008: 9-7) - Matt Leinart losing the quarterback competition in the preseason paved the way for Kurt Warner to resurrect his career, putting up an MVP performance through 12 weeks and leading the Cardinals to the NFC West division title. Even though nobody thinks they'll actually win a playoff game outside of Arizona, the Cardinals and Ken Whisenhunt certainly have the weapons to make things interesting. However with star receiver Anquan Boldin upset about his contract, virtually no running game to speak of, and an immature defense that was one of the most penalized in the league this season, the Cardinals have lots of things they need to fix in order to remain on top in the west. Warner also isn't getting any younger, so they need to decide whether or not Matt Leinart will remain in a Cardinals' uniform and start scouting to draft his replacement.

11. [+2] San Francisco 49ers (2007: 5-12, 2008: 7-9) - Head coach Mike Nolan was fired early in the season and replaced by Hall of Fame linebacker Mike Singletary, who finished the season 5-4 and was rewarded with the reins for 2009. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was fired along with quarterbacks coach Ted Tollner and running backs coach Tony Nathan. Singletary seems to be just the breathe of fresh air that the stagnant 49ers franchise needs, and has told the press that they need a new quarterback, offensive lineman, and help in the secondary. Even if they can get to 8 or 9 wins next season, Singletary will be considered a success.

10. [+2] Chicago Bears (2007: 7-9, 2008: 9-7) - The Bears started out strong and even won some games behind their offense with Kyle Orton winning the starting job in training camp. A bad loss to Houston in week 17 ended their season as the Vikings clinched the NFC North and the Eagles took the last wildcard spot. With an aging defense and little to no offensive firepower outside of rookie running back Matt Forte, the financially stingy Bears will be looking to inject some youth through the draft. Lovie Smith could be on the hot seat in 2009 if he fails to take the Bears back to the postseason.

9. [+2] Minnesota Vikings (2007: 8-8, 2008: 10-6) - Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings into the playoffs. Along with the Williams Wall, a renaissance from aging cornerback Antoine Winfield, and the offseason acquisition of marquee defensive end Jared Allen, the Vikings defense finished first against the rush and 18th against the pass. Issues that need to be sorted out at quarterback could take place this January, and while head coach Brad Childress probably saved his job with the management by winning the division the fans certainly aren't going to give him a break unless he comes home with the Lombardi trophy.

8. [+2] New York Giants (2007: 10-6, 2008: 12-4) - The defending champions let everyone know that they were intent on repeating, earning the first seed in the NFC and the requisite first-round bye. First in rushing offense and 5th in scoring defense, the Giants have a proven winning formula. In what could be defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's last year with the team, he could earn himself quite the payday with a second ring. Despite the numerous distractions from Plaxico Burress, the Giants haven't given anyone a reason to believe they shouldn't be favored in all of their playoff games.

7. [+2] Pittsburgh Steelers (2007: 10-6, 2008: 12-4) - What really makes the Steelers' 12-4 record impressive is that they had one of the most difficult schedules in recent memory, facing the brutal NFC East and the AFC South. Plagued by injuries across the offensive line and at running back didn't slow them down as free-agent acquisition Mewelde Moore proved more than able to meet the challenge. As usual, Dick LeBeau's squad led the league in scoring defense, yards per game, and passing yards per game, while outside linebacker James Harrison had a legitimate shot at the AP MVP award with 101 tackles, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, and an interception. Offensive line should be a priority in the offseason, but the Steelers should remain on top of the NFC North for the immediate future.

6. [+3] Tennessee Titans (2007: 10-6, 2008: 13-3) - The Titans finally moved out of Peyton Manning's shadow behind a stellar defense and rookie running back Chris Johnson. Albert Haynesworth was nearly unstoppable in the middle, playing for a new contract and making the Pro Bowl. Kerry Collins replaced Vince Young at quarterback and led the Titans to a 10-0 record before losing to Brett Favre's Jets. While they've managed to do well enough so far, this team would benefit greatly from a legitimate threat at wide receiver. Like the Cardinals, the current starter isn't getting any younger. If Vince Young can get over his depression, the Titans are going to have to decide how to handle that situation in order to play at the same level in 2009.

5. [+5] New York Jets (2007: 4-12, 2008: 9-7) - Acquiring Brett Favre seemed like a good idea at the beginning of the season and even made it look like a good idea for the first half. Then Jets fans were reminded that he was Brett Favre after all as he threw just two touchdowns against nine interceptions (including 3 against the Dolphins, handing them the division title) in the final five games of the season. For some reason Favre's failures were put on Eric Mangini, who was fired ending his three-year tenure with the Jets. To make things more interesting, recent comments by several Jets players have revealed chemistry problems created by Favre's poor performance and general presence in the locker room. 6th-overall pick Vernon Gholston managed to flirt with the bust tag after just one season, notching only five solo tackles and starting zero games. You can almost hear Bill Belichick snickering during the Jets recent press conferences regarding the search for a new head coach featuring reporters asking pointed questions at Mike Tannenbaum and Woody Johnson about how they were actually the ones who brought in Favre and released Chad Pennington, who coincidentally had a career year. Even if Favre returns, it's hard to imagine them being this high on next year's list.

4. [+5] Carolina Panthers (2007: 7-9, 2008: 12-4) - Jake Delhomme bounced back from Tommy John surgery rather nicely, and coupled with a monster season from running back DeAngelo Williams the Panthers earned the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Steve "sucker punch" Smith finished with 1421 yards (3rd in the league) and averaged over 100 yards per game. Julius Peppers returned to dominance and finished the season tied for 5th in the league with 14.5 sacks. While the defense as a whole has been inconsistent, the Panthers force their opponents to choose between stacking the box against Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart or double covering Steve Smith. It's not a situation defensive coordinators want to be in.

3. [+6] Baltimore Ravens (2007: 5-11, 2008: 11-5) - The Ravens managed to turn the fortunes of their franchise around in a matter of months. Firing longtime coach Brian Billick and hiring little-known John Harbaugh raised eyebrows. Drafting quarterback Joe Flacco out of Delaware raised further doubts. People forgot that the Ravens defense has three of the best players at their positions- middle linebacker Ray Lewis, free safety Ed Reed, and outside linebacker/defensive end Terrell Suggs- and a proven scheme under coordinator Rex Ryan that gives opposing offenses fits. Pair a dominant defense with a strong rushing attack (the Cowboys found that out the hard way) in Willis McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McClain and you've got a team that strongly resembles the top teams in the league.

2. [+7] Atlanta Falcons (2007: 4-12, 2008: 11-5) - Finally making a break with the ugly Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino/DeAngelo Hall past, the Falcons cleaned house in the offseason. Free Agent Michael Turner finished the season second in the league in rushing. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan played like a seasoned veteran, and wide receiver Roddy White had a breakout year. On the other side of the ball John Abraham returned to relevance with an incredible 16.5 sacks. However like the Ravens, one can't help but wonder if this year's success was more due to the easier schedule than to the beginnings of a dynasty. The Falcons still need help on defense and a No. 2 receiver could turn a good offense into a great offense.

1. [+10] Miami Dolphins (2007: 1-15, 2008: 11-5) - The 2008 Dolphins completed a historical turnaround beating the Jets in the final week of the regular season, snatching the division title from the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots. To make it even sweeter, the winning quarterback was Chad Pennington- the former Jets quarterback traded to the Dolphins as an afterthought. Head coach Tony Sparano and Executive Vice President of Football Operations Bill Parcells brought an entirely different culture to the franchise and made the Dolphins watchable again. Longtime Dolphins fixture Jason Taylor was traded to the Redskins where he spent most of the season in anonymity. Joey Porter led the conference with 17.5 sacks. The wildcat offense spread throughout the entire league and, although its effectiveness generally decreased as the season went on, made things interesting. While the impending sale of the team to mogul Steven Gross has left Parcells' future with the team in doubt, the Dolphins have some great building blocks in place and have dragged themselves out of the AFC East's gutter. At least until next season, they've exceeded all expectations.

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