NBA Playoff Preview: Western Conference 1st Round

#8 Utah Jazz (48-34) vs #1 Los Angeles Lakers (65-17)


Season series: Lakers lead 2-1


Breakdown

Far and away the favorites to win the Western Conference, the Lakers get a tough first round draw in Utah. The Jazz are a veteran, playoff-tested team that should give the Lakers a run for their money. However, we've seen how this series plays out. The Lakers and Jazz met in the 2nd round of the playoffs last year and LA won in 6. The Jazz have a shot in virtually any series because they are such a dominant home team, but without home court advantage, it's hard to see them beating out the Lakers, who beat them last year without Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza.


X-factor: Andrew Bynum

Bynum is not far removed from an injury, so it's hard to know how effective he can be in this series. If he is rusty and Utah can take advantage, they can make a series out of this. However, if he plays as well as he did early in the season, the Lakers could be in position to blow through the Western Conference.


Prediction: Lakers in 6



#7 New Orleans Hornets (49-33) vs #2 Denver Nuggets (54-28)


Season series: tied 2-2


Breakdown

This is a tough series to read these teams have not played each other at full strength. In each game, at least one significant player has been missing. The closest they came was in the first two meetings (which they split) in which Denver was at full strength, but New Orleans was missing Tyson Chandler. Considering Chandler is far and away their best defensive big man, this is very significant. And yet, with Hilton Armstrong at center, the Hornets won one game and lost by just five in the other. With Chandler back, their chances significantly increase. It will also be interesting to see how the stars match up with one another. Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups should be able to exploit each other offensively, with Paul's quickness and Billups' size. Meanwhile Carmelo Anthony and David West could each be limited as their opponents have a number of strong defensive players to throw their way. James Posey, Rasual Butler, and Julian Wright could all spend time guarding Anthony, and Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris Anderson will have turns defending West.


X-factor: Chris Anderson

Birdman has had a resurgent season off the bench for Denver and now gets the chance to take on his former team. The biggest advantage Denver has over New Orleans is their depth at the size positions and if Anderson can help press that advantage, the Hornets could be in trouble.


Prediction: Hornets in 7



#6 Dallas Mavericks (50-32) vs #3 San Antonio Spurs (54-28)


Season series: tied 2-2


Breakdown

This a very tough draw for the veteran Spurs, who will be without Manu Ginobili. In addition, Dallas can match up pretty well, putting Erick Dampier (a big body and occasionally effective) on Tim Duncan, while offensively Dirk Nowitzki should be able to torch Matt Bonner or the aging Duncan. However, the Mavs have no answer for Tony Parker, who has decimated Dallas this season. He is averaging 31.3 PPG and 8.0 APG in 4 games against Dallas this season. Dallas simply has no one with the quickness to contain him. Ginobili will be missed, but the Spurs ought to have enough to get by Dallas, behind a dominant performance from Parker.


X-factor: Roger Mason

Mason will be filling in for Ginobili, starting at shooting guard. While he's not nearly as good a scorer as Manu, he's shown that he can knock down open shots, including ones in the clutch, and has been a major asset for San Antonio this season. He'll need to pick up even more of the slack with Ginobili gone.


Prediction: Spurs in 6



#5 Houston Rockets (53-39) vs #4 Portland Trailblazers (54-28)


Season series: Rockets lead 2-1


Breakdown

This should be one of the best series of the 1st round, as the two teams appear fairly evenly matched. The up-and-coming Blazers have been very fun to watch this year, with a balanced attack and the emergence of Brandon Roy as a star. Meanwhile, Houston has looked great in the second half of the season, despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of Tracy McGrady. On paper these teams appear evenly matched, but it's a bit hard to see Portland winning this one. While the Blazers have the size to body up on Yao Ming, Houston has enough perimeter defenders to put a damper on Roy's productivity. Roy averaged 21.0 PPG against Houston in 3 games, just 1.6 points off his overall average, but he did so on 39.3% shooting. This no doubt had a lot to do with the play of Ron Artest and Shane Battier on the defensive end. LaMarcus Aldridge will also have his work cut out for him, going against Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes.


X-factor: Greg Oden

Oden has had a fairly disappointing "rookie" year. He has struggled to stay healthy and has been inconsistent when he has been able to play. Oden only played in one game against Houston this year and he was a non-factor. He played only 11 minutes due to foul trouble and he did not manage a single rebound. However, if he can get his act together, at least on the defensive end, he has the physical ability to make life difficult for Yao. It's a long shot, but Oden has the ability to get the Blazers out of the first round.



Prediction: Rockets in 6