Phillies Stave Off 10,000th Loss

I almost didn't write this because I'm pretty sure it means that the Phillies will lose tonight, but here goes anyway.

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Phillies have looked great. Granted, it's been two games and they've been playing the lowly Cardinals (still can't believe they're the reigning champions), but they've scored 23 runs in the last two games and have pitched fairly well. Kyle Kendrick has been outstanding since his call-up from AA, far exceeding any expectations. He's delivered quality start after quality start, with his best effort coming Friday night when he allowed just one run in seven innings. It hasn't hurt that he's gotten good run support as well, but he really looks like he could be a keeper for this team. He's making a strong bid to be a part of next year's rotation.

Cole Hamels picked up his 11th win last night, though it wasn't a great outing for him. One has to wonder how he's going to hold up in the second half, since he's never logged this many innings before in his career. He should be alright since the Phillies have been pretty careful with his pitch counts, but it wouldn't be a shock if he wore down a bit by the end of the season. Not that I'm suggesting last night's start was the beginning of the end for him, it was just an off-night. Happens to the best of them and, frankly, four runs in six innings is not so terrible for an "off-night." Especially when the offense is scoring 10+ runs a game.

While the Phillies hitters can't expect to score quite that many every night, they clearly have the best offense in the National League. Chase Utley has been one of the best hitters in the league. Jimmy Rollins has as many home runs (18) as Albert Pujols. Ryan Howard hit his 22nd home run last night and, despite his slow start and his stint on the DL, could be headed for another 50 home run season. Aaron Rowand is having a career year (in a contract year, naturally) and has been phenomenal in the clutch. His stats in just about every clutch situation imaginable have been excellent. Shane Victorino's batting average has been up and down, but he's stolen 28 bases.

Most surprising of all, Pat Burrell has come on of late. Since going 0-2 against the Mets on July 1st, when he had a .201 batting average, he has gone on a tear and raised it to .227. He raised it 10 points last night when he went 3-3 with 4 RBIs. Keep in mind that Burrell is the Phillies 6th or 7th best hitter (depending on whether Greg Dobbs is in the lineup), so if he can get going it's just a bonus.

Of course, the Phillies still have some problems. Their starting pitching, after Hamels and Kendrick, has been very shaky. Moyer has struggled of late and Eaton is still fairly erratic. What's more, the Phillies don't really have a fifth starter. As of now it looks like it will be J.D. Durbin, who did not look too good in his first start with the team. They might opt for Clay Condrey instead, evidenced by the Phillies' use of Durbin out of the bullpen as recently as Friday night. A trade would be a huge benefit, but the Phillies don't really have anyone to offer. Their farm system is very weak and the only players they'd like to trade are the ones who haven't produced for them. They can't give up Utley, Howard, Hamels, or Rollins, they won't deal Victorino or Michael Bourn, and no one would take Burrell. Their only option would be to trade Aaron Rowand, but with their shortage of right-handed bats (not to mention clutch hitters), they can't afford to give him up.

They're stuck with the pitchers they have, but that may not be such a bad thing. The Mets' and Braves' rotations lack consistency as well, with the exception of John Smoltz (who's now on the DL). The fact is, with all their pitching woes, the Phillies still have arguably the best starter in the division in Hamels. Their biggest weakness is the bullpen. Alfonseca/Mesa II has been acceptable, but not that great. Ryan Madson has looked good of late. Mike Zagurski continues to post solid numbers as a rookie. The addition of J.C. Romero was a big one. Romero pitched reasonably well with the Red Sox, posting a 3.15 ERA, though his BB/K ratio was pretty bad. He's looked pretty good since joining the Phillies and could be very important for them.

While the Phillies bullpen is not very good, that could change when Brett Myers gets back. Myers looked outstanding as a closer before his injury and should strengthen the 'pen considerably upon his return. With a good closer, all of the sudden the bullpen doesn't look that bad. Alfonseca, Madson, Romero, and Zagurski as 6th, 7th, and 8th inning pitchers is a decent group, not to mention Tom Gordon and maybe Geoff Geary if he can work out his issues in AAA.

In the end of the day, even with 10,000 losses, the Phillies are a legitimate contender in the NL East. The Phillies have their problems, but so do the Mets and Braves, and with Myers returning, the Phillies have good reason to think that they'll improve in the second half, which is something that, barring a trade, the Mets and Braves can't really say.