Friday, July 13, 2007

Rashard, Darko, and other moves

It's been a busy week in the NBA off-season. The Magic made two huge moves recently, completing the sign-and-trade for Rashard Lewis and locking up Dwight Howard to a five year extension. The addition of Lewis has drawn much criticism, but if it allows the Magic to hang onto Howard, than it might just be worth it since Howard is that franchise right now. That said, he's not going to make them much better. Orlando did need a perimeter scorer and some shooting, which Lewis provides, but he is such a poor defender that he'll likely give up about as many points as he creates. While adding a sharpshooter will give Howard more room to operate, it will also put a lot more pressure on him on the defensive end, as opposing small forwards blow past Lewis into the paint, likely creating a few more fouls for Howard. The Lewis signing also eliminated Orlando's salary cap room and effectively cost them Darko Milicic, leaving a gaping hole at center.

The Magic had to make a move, but even with Lewis they are not a lock for a playoff spot, even in the East. This has more to do with other Eastern Conference teams getting better than the Magic getting worse. Certainly Orlando will score more than they did last season, with Howard improving, Lewis getting open shots, and possibly some improvement from J.J. Redick, who could also benefit from Howard's low-post dominance if he proves he can play regularly. But Orlando is going to be a very poor defensive team (especially if Redick cracks the rotation). They'll make a run at the 7 or 8 seed, but expect an improved team like the Celtics or Bucks to knock them off.

Meanwhile, after cutting ties with Orlando, Darko has made his way to Memphis, which is ironic since the Pistons selected him with Memphis' draft pick. While Darko is anything but proven, this is a good move for the Grizzlies. Darko is only 22, so he could certainly improve. While he'll never live up to the hype surrounding his draft class, he could develop into a very good player. Seeing as this is only a three-year deal, Memphis can let him walk if he doesn't improve. This gives the Grizzlies a very nice young core. Pau Gasol will now be flanked by Darko, Mike Conley, and Rudy Gay. In a few years, that could be a very dangerous trio. Memphis should be improved this year, though they're not a playoff team yet (since they're not in the East).

One team to look out for is the Charlotte Bobcats. With the addition of Jason Richardson and the re-signing of Gerald Wallace, they have the makings of a dangerous team that might just compete for a playoff spot. Richardson will bring scoring and outside shooting, Wallace does a little bit of everything, Emeka Okafor will benefit from Richardson's presence, and Raymond Felton should continue to improve. If Sean May can stay healthy and Adam Morrison can find a way to be productive, Charlotte could be pretty good. They would have to be my sleeper team in the East.

Out West, the Lakers just have me confused. First they made draft picks that looked a lot like rebuilding moves, adding raw PG Javaris Crittenton, Chinese F Sun Yue, and Spanish C Marc Gasol, who will all take a few years to develop. Then the Lakers go and sign Derek Fisher. Why sign Fisher when you've spent your last two first round picks on point guards? Fisher isn't the player he was in his first stint with the Lakers. He's not the shooter he used to be, and yet three-point shooting is the only justification I can think of for adding him. It's a very questionable signing and even if Kobe Bryant stays in LA, the Lakers are going to have a very tough time securing a playoff spot.

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