Thursday, June 26, 2008

Richard Jefferson to the Bucks

The New Jersey Nets and Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to sent Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. Oddly enough, no draft picks were involved, despite the timing of the trade.

Jefferson is coming off his best scoring season yet, as he averaged 22.6 PPG last year. He'll be a considerable improvement at small forward, where the Bucks had previously relied on Simmons, Yi, and Desmond Mason. The Bucks can now play a starting lineup of Maurice Williams, Michael Redd, Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut. This could be an excellent scoring lineup, but it will give up a lot of points as well. None of the aforementioned players are particularly good defenders. Perhaps they add a defensive-minded player in the draft, and then there's always free agency.

New Jersey, meanwhile, continues its youth movement by dealing the veteran Jefferson for Yi and Simmons. Simmons has been a disappointment in Milwaukee since joining the team as a free agent, and Yi showed signs of greatness, but has a long way to go before he reaches his supposed potential. One of the most intriguing players of the 2007 draft, Yi resented the Bucks for drafting him despite his demands to go to a specific list of teams in larger markets. Now he gets his wish, going to the New York area. While he averaged 25 minutes a game last year, it was difficult to get him those minutes. The Bucks had to balance playing time between him and Villanueva and, as a result, both had to play out of position at times.

The Nets starting lineup should feature Devin Harris, Vince Carter, and Yi, but after that it becomes unclear. Nenad Krstic is a free agent and, now that Yi is in the fold, the Nets will be under less pressure to bring him back. Though no draft picks were involved, this has to affect both team's draft strategies. How the Nets' strategy changes depends on whether they see Yi as a small forward or a power forward. They could draft a small forward such as Joe Alexander (if he is still available), or they could grab the best available big man, possibly taking Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, or Anthony Randolph.

Meanwhile, the Bucks could opt for a big man now that they have Jefferson to take over at small forward. They could grab any of the three aforementioned PF/C's, or they might just take the best available player. It's unlikely that they would land a starting caliber player with the 8th pick (especially now that they have five legitimate starters), but they could use backups at almost every position.

This trade makes perfect sense for the Nets. They get a prospect with great potential and save some money in the process in exchange for a veteran who was not going to help them in the long run. In addition to saving money by dealing Jefferson, adding Yi ought to boost team revenue due to Yi's popularity in China.

For the Bucks, however, the trade isn't as easy to understand. Jefferson will certainly make them better, but does he make them a playoff team? Even if he does, it's hard to see them doing any better than a seven-seed. The Redd-Jefferson tandem is probably not enough to make the Bucks contenders. One has to think the main reason they made the trade is to unload Yi. It's no secret that he was unhappy with the Bucks for drafting him and the Bucks could not have been pleased with the rumors that Yi was 3-4 years older than advertised.

Ultimately, this trade probably impacts the draft more than it will next year's standings. The Bucks should be better, but they'll still be a bad defensive team and it's unclear whether Jefferson compliments the rest of the talent particularly well. The Nets will be worse, but that's not a problem for them, as they can add another high lottery pick to their impressive nucleus.

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