Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Can the Tennessee Titans go 16-0?

I don't think they will. Here's a look at their remaining schedule.

Week 11 at Jacksonville- The Jaguars have looked like a shell of last year's team, and a weak offensive line is probably the reason. Unfortunately against the best defensive front 4 in the league this hurts. Tennessee's defense is leading the league in points allowed with 13.0 / game, while Kerry Collins has shown he's equally comfortable handing the ball off to the running backs or throwing short, controlled passes to keep the chains moving. I wouldn't expect the Jaguars- 20th in rush defense and 17th in pass defense- to be able to take away both those options.

Week 12 vs. NYJ- The Jets have a chance in this one. Their revamped offensive line has paid off in the last few weeks, and like it or not Favre has turned into a game manager. Still, the Jets have been as roller-coaster as any team in the league, winning big one week and losing the next. It all depends on whether the good Jets show up, but I still doubt that they've got the game plan to beat the Titans' defense.

Week 13 at Detroit- The Lions are great candidates for 0-16. They can't stop anything, and their offense is anemic at best. I'd expect Calvin Johnson to be double teamed by Cortland Finnegan and Chris Hope more or less the entire afternoon and stack 8 to hurry Daunte Culpepper and stop Kevin Smith. This one will be a blowout.

Week 14 vs. Cleveland- The Browns aren't doing so great this year. I guess the 10-6 honeymoon has worn off. The thing about the Browns is that they don't do anything particularly well. They had a great game against Denver (even though they lost) under Brady Quinn but Denver is in the running for worst defense in the league (it's a close contest with the Lions). I could see Quinn and the Browns winning their next three, as they don't play great teams, but this should be his "welcome to the NFL" moment.

Week 15 at Houston- This is one of the two remaining games that I actually think Tennessee will lose. I think they'll get caught looking ahead to week 16 against Pittsburgh or week 17 at Indianapolis. Matt Schaub will have had a couple weeks to get back in sync with Andre Johnson, who is even hard to double cover. Steve Slaton had a decent game against the Titans in week 3 with 116 yards and a touchdown. By now the Titans will almost certainly have locked up a playoff spot and possibly a first-round bye. (Note: if Sage Rosenfels plays, the Texans' chances might actually go up. In 4 career games against the Titans including two last year, Rosenfels averages 178 yards, 2 touchdowns, an interception, and a 102.9 passer rating.)

Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh- Too many people give the Steelers credit for being an "elite" team. Sure- the defense is good, but the offense is so streaky and their fortunes fall squarely on the sore shoulders of Ben Roethlisberger. I'm really not sure how or why they lost against the Colts at home this past week, but on the road against the hands-down best team in the league is a tall order unless they start a major turn-around.

Week 17 at Indianapolis- The other game I think the Titans will lose. The Colts will probably be finishing strong, as their schedule after week 10 gets much easier. With 4 losses at the conclusion of week 10, the Colts play Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Jacksonville. If they can win 4 or 5 out of those 6, week 17's result determines if they get into the playoffs. They will be desperate. Meanwhile the Titans will have little to play for, and would probably only play their starters for the first half in an exact reversal of last season's finale.

So there you have it. 14-2 with a first-round bye isn't bad.

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