Friday, August 24, 2007

NFL Preview: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Last year Steve McNair was able to lead the Ravens to an impressive 13-3 record in his first season in Baltimore, but the team would ultimately fall short, losing to Indianapolis in the divisional round of the playoffs. As good as McNair was, the offense was still sub-par, featuring a terribly inconsistent rushing attack. Jamal Lewis struggled in what turned out to be his final season as a Raven and Mike Anderson was not able to pick up the slack. The Ravens addressed that need in the off-season by cutting ties with Lewis and trading for Willis McGahee. McGahee had a bit of a down year in Buffalo, falling just short of 1000 yards in 14 games and recording only 6 TDs. Of course, this had a lot to do with the Bills poor quarterback play and a mediocre offensive line. McGahee should fare much better in Baltimore where he'll be playing behind a very strong offensive line and should get far more consistent play out of McNair than he did out of J.P. Losman.

The McGahee trade was by far the biggest move Baltimore made in the off-season and it should have huge ramifications, as it addresses their biggest weakness. This could be the best offense Baltimore has seen in a long time. The Ravens still have an outstanding defense, anchored by Ray Lewis, though they will be hurt by the loss of Adelius Thomas, whose versatility was extremely valuable. Even without him, Baltimore is loaded with talent and this will still be one of the top defensive units in the league.

The main question for this team will be the health of Steve McNair. He managed to start all 16 games last season, doing so for the first time since 2002. The offensive line will be a strength once again, so that will help keep McNair on the field, as will the presence of a dangerous running back such as McGahee. Nevertheless, this team's Super Bowl aspirations are dependent on McNair's health, with Kyle Boller as the only serviceable back-up. The Ravens have to be the favorite for this division and, talent-wise, they match up pretty well with the AFC's elite.

Cincinnati Bengals: After making the playoffs in 2005, the Bengals struggled, finishing 8-8. The offense was a strength once again, as Carson Palmer made a successful return from a severe knee injury. Palmer had a strong season, as did Rudi Johnson and the Bengals' wide receiving corps. The defense, on the other hand, struggled mightily and likely cost the team another playoff appearance. While in 2005, the defense was able to get away with gambling and made their living off turnovers, this proved less effective in 2006.

The biggest news the Bengals made was off the field, as numerous players were arrested for various implications. The Bengals had the dubious distinction of being the JailBlazers of the NFL and they had a lot to do with Commissioner Roger Goodell initiating his policy of suspending players for such behavior. Chris Henry was among the first victims.

Cincinnati did not do a great deal to improve the defense, so the pressure will lie on the offense to out-gun the opposition. The Bengals could be a playoff team again, but Carson Palmer will have to have an MVP-caliber season if they are to compete with Baltimore for the AFC North crown.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers were unable to follow up their Super Bowl season with another playoff run, as Ben Roethlisburger suffered numerous injuries and the team finished at .500. Big Ben seemingly could not catch a break. He was in a motorcycle accident in the off-season, then missed time due to an emergency appendectomy. While he played in all but the first game of the season, he missed training camp and the pre-season, which made it harder for him to get into a rhythm. He was also relied on more to make plays with the retirement of Jerome Bettis. As a result, he threw for 3,513 yards, over 1,000 more than in 2005, and a career-high 18 TDs, but was intercepted 23 times. The 23 interceptions was more than he threw in his first two seasons combined.

The Steelers got a strong effort from their defense, but lost Joey Porter to free agency in the off-season. While Porter is aging and his production was beginning to decline, he was very much the heart and soul of the defense, and for that reason he will be missed. Nonetheless, the Pittsburgh defense will still be a strength. The most significant loss, however, was that of long-time head coach Bill Cowher. Now Mike Tomlin will take the reins in his first head coaching job and will have a difficult task ahead in the highly competitive AFC North.

The key to the season will be Roethlisburger's improvement. Willie Parker performed admirably as the starting running back, but this is not the same Steelers team of Bettis' days, when they could grind it out on the ground and the quarterback had to do little more than keep the defense honest. Big Ben didn't appear ready last year for such a large role in the offense, but that may have been due to his off-season injuries.

Cleveland Browns: Last year, Cleveland's offense was dismal, scoring only 238 points for the entire season. Charlie Frye was relatively ineffective and Reuben Droughns also struggled in his first season out of Mike Shanahan's offense. Through the draft, the Browns (hopefully) substantially improved. They used the third overall pick on Joe Thomas, who will help stabilize the offensive line, then managed to trade up and take Brady Quinn with the 22nd pick. This was considered something of a coup simply because there were those who thought the Browns would take Quinn with the third pick and no one expected him to be available that late. That said, Quinn (and Thomas) will have to substantially improve the Browns for it to be a worthwhile trade, as they surrendered next year's first round pick to Dallas in order to take Quinn.

In addition to their draft day activity, the Browns added Jamal Lewis, who ought to fare better than Droughns. While they have a similar running style, Droughns is really little more than a glorified fullback, whereas Lewis has been among the best at his position when he has been healthy and properly motivated. The additions of Thomas, Quinn, and Lewis will give the Browns a considerably better offense (though Quinn might not start immediately).

While the defense will not be dominant, the offense's improvement should keep the defense off the field for longer stretches, allowing for more rest and a stronger performance. The Browns should be fairly improved all-around. That said, it may not be reflected much in their record due to their difficult schedule. In addition to divisional play, Cleveland will have to face New England and the NFC West. There are some cupcakes on the schedule (Arizona, Oakland, Houston), but even so it is hard to envision the Browns finishing with more than 6 wins, barring a superb rookie season from Quinn.

1 comment:

M said...

The Ravens addressed their need at RB, but they still need something out of Steve McNair. He only managed 16 touchdowns last season- less than Donovan McNabb (18 TD) who was out for half (?) the season, less than Eli Manning (24) who sucks, and less than Rex Grossman (23) who sucks possibly even more. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 13-3 again this year though. Weeks 12, 13, and 14 are going to be tough as they play San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis right in a row. They play the Bengals twice, but the Bengals always manage to underachieve. The rest of their schedule is relatively easy.

If the Bengals are going to win the AFC North then this is the year they have to do it. Their schedule features only 4 games with a good defense, 2 against the Ravens and 1 each vs the Patriots and the Dolphins. If Asante Samuel keeps being a little retard, then I don't think the Patriots defense is going to be that great. Their linebackers are old, Rodney Harrison is always injured, and the Defensive line minus R. Seymour isn't that special. Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshblahblahblah, and Rudi Johnson SHOULD be able to put up minimum 20 points in any other game.

But as usual, the defense (or lack of it) is going to cause headaches. It'll be fun to see how they handle LJ, VY, Frank Gore, and Shaun Alexander...even though the Seahawks aren't a tough team to beat (unless you have Tony Romo holding on a kick).

The Steelers are going to be terrible again, the only thing I admired them for last season was for knocking the Bengals out of playoff contention. I keep hearing things about giving Big Ben more control over the offense, which is a terrible idea because he simply is not good. Their receivers are mediocre but it doesn't matter because Ben throws to the other team just as often as he throws to them. Willie Parker is a good RB, so maybe he'll be able to take some of the pressure off. With a disgruntled Alan Faneca, one wonders how well their line will hold up.

The Browns aren't going anywhere. They made a good move in the draft taking Joe Thomas 3rd, but everyone is wondering how BQ will turn out. Personally I think he's a whiney little bitch who never played a really hard game at Notre Dame, and was drafted pretty much exactly where he should have been- not in the top 20. The Browns have a long season ahead of them. They might get the first pick in the 08 draft. Oh wait- it'll go to the Cowboys LOL. We'll see if the Browns are the "team I [Quinn] wanted to play for all along" when they pull an Oakland.