NFL Preview: AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars struggled somewhat last year, facing numerous injuries, and finished a disappointing 8-8. Byron Leftwich missed significant time, though David Garrard was unable to perform well enough to guarantee the starting job for this year. The Jaguars looked like a safe bet for the playoffs before they lost their final 3 games. The team was extremely erratic. They had some impressive wins, such as their 44-17 rout of the Colts, but also suffered surprising losses, including a 27-7 thrashing by the Texans.

While Leftwich and Garrard were unable to move the ball consistently through the air, the running game was superb, highlighted by the emergence of rooke Maurice Jones-Drew, who compiled three 100+ yard games despite backing up Fred Taylor. Jones-Drew terrorized Indianapolis in particular, as two of his 100 yard games came against the Colts. The running attack should be just as strong this year and it would not be a surprise if the Jaguars swept the Colts this season.

Much of Jacksonville's success will depend on their defense. Part of the reason for their lackluster season last year was a season-ending injury to Donovan Darius, who was cut in the off-season due to the team's selection of safety Reggie Nelson in the first round of the draft. The defense still played well, giving up only 5 more points than they did in their 2005 campaign, when they went 12-4. The key will be whether the Jaguars can find an answer at quarterback. Leftwich has a lot to prove and unless he has a stellar season, he will likely be allowed to leave as a free agent.

Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning finally proved his critics wrong, leading Indianapolis to a championship. Everything came together for the Colts. Manning his typical season, the running game was effective, despite Edgerin James' departure, anchored by Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai, and the defense was the best it's been in the last few years.

Unfortunately for Manning, the Colts will be hard-pressed to repeat because of a number of off-season losses. Rhodes, Mike Doss, Cato June, and Nick Harper all departed via free agency. A lot of pressure will be on Addai with Rhodes gone, but more significant are all the defensive losses. No major additions were made to bolster the defense and really the only significant move was the re-signing of Dwight Freeney. Freeney is a tremendous player, but he can't get it done by himself. The Colts showed themselves vulnerable to the run when the Jaguars, among others, ran all over them, and without two effective running backs, it will be much harder for the Colts to use their offense to control the clock.

While the rest of the AFC's elite looks better than they were last year, the Colts look substantially worse and unless some unheralded defensive players step up, another deep playoff run is unlikely.

Tennessee Titans: The Titans surprised a lot of people last year when they made a legitimate playoff push down the stretch, led by Vince Young. Young had an outstanding season and put on display the physical talent and leadership that made him so successful at the University of Texas.

While many are optimistic about the Titans' 2007 prospects, it is difficult to see them making the playoffs in this division. The Colts and Jaguars both have more talent, and even the Texans improved enough that they are capable of stealing a game from the Titans. What's more, Tennessee benefited from one of the easiest schedules in football and this year they will face one of the toughest.

Vince Young could carry them again this year, but one has to wonder about whether he can stay healthy. (No, not just because of the Madden cover) Scrambling quarterbacks often struggle to stay on the field. Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, and Steve McNair have all faced significant injuries in the past, so it would not be surprising to see Young go down. Should that happen, any playoff hopes the Titans may have would be sunk.

Houston Texans: Many eyebrows were raised when the Texans bypassed Reggie Bush and Vince Young to select Mario Williams with the first pick of the 2006 Draft. The argument was that the Texans already had capable players at running back and quarterback. That logic seems pretty flawed now. David Carr was shown the door after spending five seasons as a human tackling dummy, and Domanick Williams was cut after missing the entire season due to a pre-season injury. Mario Williams, meanwhile, had an unimpressive rookie season.

The biggest move the Texans made in the off-season was the addition of Matt Schaub, which spelled the end in Houston for Carr. Schaub, by all accounts, is a very capable quarterback who just had the misfortune of being stuck behind Michael Vick (though I bet Atlanta wishes they had held on a little longer now). Schaub may be an improvement, but the problem with Carr was never talent. The Texans have always had a weak offensive line and this issue was not addressed.

Schaub will be joined by former Packers running back Ahman Green. Green had a solid 1,000 yard season in Green Bay and was one of the lone bright spots. Still, at age 30 and without a strong offensive line, it's hard to imagine him being overly effective. Houston did manage to re-sign Andre Johnson, but the loss of Eric Moulds will mean that a lot of double teams will be coming Johnson's way. Houston should be in for another poor season. If they're bad enough, maybe they can redeem themselves in the draft.