Friday, August 31, 2007

NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears: The Bears surprised many by making it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, despite dealing with inconsistent play from Rex Grossman. As bad as he could be, Grossman was better than the Kyle Orton experience of 2005, but he still was very turnover prone and at times put more pressure on the Bears defense to win games for them. Fortunately, the defense was very capable of winning games by itself, and it didn't hurt that the Bears played in the weak NFC North.

While Grossman gave the Bears some big plays, the offense was anchored by the running game. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson provided an excellent one-two punch; Jones with his quickness and Benson with his pure power. Devin Hester also provided a spark as a kick and punt returner, so much so that Chicago will look to get him into the offense a bit this year. Of course the defense, led by Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, was the crux of the team and they will be again this year.

The Bears come back with a mostly impact defense, though Briggs considered holding out for a long time and now he could face some legal trouble after crashing and abandoning his Ferrari recently. The most notable change is the departure of Jones, who is now a Jet. This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Benson, who is now the only viable running back. He's had injury problems in the past and it wouldn't be surprising if they cropped up again since he relies on power and is going to take a lot of hard hits. If the Bears want to get back to the Super Bowl, Benson will have to stay healthy and be effective and Grossman will have to show at least a little improvement. If these things don't happen, the defense can probably get them the division title, but they will likely fall short in the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings: Brad Childress did a decent job in his first season as head coach with a team that was not particularly talented. The offense clearly needed work, though Chester Taylor had some nice games. Brad Johnson struggled and proved that he is no longer a starting quarterback. The defense was phenomenal against the run, but fared poorly against the pass.

The offense should be improved this year thanks to the drafting of Adrian Peterson. Peterson looks to have a bright NFL future and the Vikings were fortunate that he fell into their laps. He and Taylor should give the Vikings a dangerous rushing tandem, but there are still major questions about their quarterback situation. (Many thought they should have drafted Brady Quinn instead of Peterson.) As of now, the team will be starting Tavaris Jackson, who has only played in 4 games in his career and has a 62.5 QB rating. The spot is Jackson's to lose, as there is no young quarterback waiting to take over, though the team did recently acquire Kelly Holcomb, who could see some playing time if Jackson struggles.

Minnesota will have to get some improvement from their pass defense, but with their strong rush defense and the improved running game, they could win some games simply by dominating time of the possession. That might be enough for them to finish second in this division, but if they can improve the pass defense and can get solid play out of Jackson, they might just give the Bears a run.

Detroit Lions: Detroit had a terrible season, finishing at 3-13. Jon Kitna did a decent job and Kevin Jones had a few good games, but it was not enough. The Lions defense couldn't get the job done and the running game was often ineffective. On talent, the Lions were far better than their record, but the chemistry didn't seem to be there.

In the off-season, the Lions made some significant improvements. They spent the second overall pick in the draft on Calvin Johnson and then took Drew Stanton in the second round. While Detroit drew some criticism for their frequent drafting of wide receivers in the first round, all of whom have been busts except for Roy Williams, it's hard to criticize this pick because of Johnson's talent. Even the Raiders, who desperately needed quarterback help, had to seriously consider Johnson with the first overall pick. It's hard to remember the last time a wide receiver had this much hype coming out of college. Johnson probably won't have a huge impact this year, simply because he will have to learn the playbook and historically wide receivers take a year or two to blossom, but he should still make some big plays nonetheless.

The other big additions were adding Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett, especially now that Jones is hurt and will miss a good portion of the season. Bell relies on quickness and Duckett is a power back, so the two should complement each other extremely well. On defense, the loss of Dre' Bly will hurt, but they still have the talent to be decent. It's hard to see the Lions finishing at .500, or winning the division, as Kitna suggested, but they should show some improvement and might even make a run at second place.

Green Bay Packers: While many have called for Brett Favre to retire in the last few years, he surprised many by helping the team to a 8-8 record. Favre was far from his best, posting a 72.7 QB rating, but the team still played reasonably well. A.J. Hawk had a fine rookie season and improved the defense and Ahman Green stayed fairly healthy and played well.

Unfortunately for the Packers, Green left for Houston via free agency and the running game will now rely primarily on rookie Brandon Jackson. He will not have an easy time of it, playing behind a mediocre offensive line. The defense should, again, be a strength with Hawk, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamala, Al Harris, and rookie Justin Harrell, but it isn't good enough to win games by itself.

Unless Favre bounces back and has a very strong season or Jackson has an outstanding rookie year, it's hard to see the Packers doing much better than third. That said, this is a very weak division and it is very hard to predict. If everything goes right in Green Bay and some things go wrong with the rest of the division, it's not inconceivable for the Packers to come out on top.

1 comment:

M said...

I think the lions are definitely headed for a last place finish, although they'll probably win a few more games this year. You understate d the packers chances of winning the division. Not just "something" but "everything" would have to go wrong for them to win.