Do the Rockies Have a Shot?

That's been the question that the Colorado Rockies, despite winning 21 of their last 22 games, have had to face ever since they finished off the Arizona Diamondbacks. Before we even knew who was coming out of the AL, the Rockies were being written off. Normally I can't root for teams with that perennial underdog complex, but it's well-justified in Colorado's case.

Yes, I know the American League has been a lot better this year and that the Rockies barely made the playoffs in the weak National League. The Rockies still get to take the field and have a legitimate shot at beating the Red Sox. The problem is that for the Rockies to win, a lot of things need to go right. The Red Sox have more talent, especially in their pitching, and thus more margin for error.

It would seem that some intangibles are in the Rockies' favor. First, their hot streak should give them a ton of momentum. At the same time, they've had eight days off and will be very well-rested. These both sound like great advantages, but they don't go together...at all. The rest is nice, but it will kill all of Colorado's momentum. In other sports, the rest would be a considerable advantage, but this is baseball. There's no effective way to practice that equates to playing a real game, and the key elements are so based on rhythm that the time off can be devastating. Some would argue that the Red Sox will be fatigued coming in, but why would they be? They played a seven game series over nine days. Teams regularly play nine games in nine days in the regular season and they don't complain about it.

So you can scratch those advantages out. The rest actually serves as a disadvantage and momentum is overrated anyway. Even if momentum was a legitimate factor (and I'll admit it plays a small role. There is a psychological element in baseball), the Red Sox have more of it after rallying from a 3-1 deficit and by doing so more recently.

The Red Sox pitching is far superior to the Rockies, both their starters and in the bullpen. Jeff Francis has pitched very well, but he's no Josh Beckett. Curt Schilling isn't as good as he used to be, but he's still a reliable playoff pitcher, and Daisuke Matsuzaka has been mediocre in October, but he should be just as good as anyone Colorado can muster for Game 3. In the 'pen, Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima can effectively end a game in the 7th inning, whereas Colorado can send out Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas. Both have been effective, but neither can compare to Boston's relievers.

If the Rockies are going to win, it will be with their offense (and their fielding, to a degree). Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are excellent, and Kevin Youkilis was phenomenal in the ALCS, but after that the Red Sox offense is a little shaky. The main reason they were down 3-1 in the first place is because their other players weren't getting hits and driving in Manny, Ortiz, and Youkilis.

Colorado's offense is much more balanced. Matt Holliday is the favorite to win the MVP after a monster season. Todd Helton is still a very good hitter, even if he doesn't have the home run power that he used to. Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are both very dangerous, and Kaz Matsui has been excellent at the plate in the post-season. The Red Sox have superior pitching, but the Rockies make up for it, partially, with a more dangerous lineup.

The real determining factor in this series will be the ballparks. It is well-known that Fenway provides a major homefield advantage for the Red Sox. The Green Monster has been known to fool many opposing left fielders, while at the same time it gives Manny relatively little ground to cover. Boston's homefield advantage is well-established, but what could be more important is how the Red Sox handle Coors Field.

It's true that Coors Field is no longer the home run haven it used to be, now that the humidor has been implemented, but it is still a very spacious park which could play into the hands of the Rockies. While Colorado's outfielders all have very good range, this could be a problem for Boston. Manny doesn't cover a lot of ground and has been known to misplay balls and J.D. Drew is also a mediocre fielder. One option would be to start both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, which would probably give the Red Sox enough speed in the outfield to mask Manny's poor fielding, but this would be risky. While Drew has not hit especially well, save his grand slam in Game 6, his bat would be a welcome addition to the lineup considering that the Red Sox will have to sit either Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis, as Ortiz is forced to play first base due to National League rules. The Red Sox infield defense will also be lackluster, with Ortiz at first, Julio Lugo at shortstop, and possibly Youkilis at third base. These defensive struggles and the offensive drain could well be enough for the Rockies to take two games in Denver.

All that said, the Red Sox are the better all-around team, with much better pitching, and they have homefield advantage in the series, which should be enough for them to win. Don't count the Rockies out, but I'm taking the Red Sox in 6.