Saturday, October 27, 2007

NBA Preview: Central Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Chicago Bulls:
The Bulls continued to improve last season, winning 49 games and reaching the second round of the playoffs. Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon had very good seasons, but the real story was Luol Deng, who was the Bulls' best player and enjoyed a breakout season, putting up 18.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG. The addition of Ben Wallace helped the Bulls, although it remains a questionable move. Wallace is now 33 and last year was his worst rebounding and shot-blocking season since 1999-2000, the year before he came to Detroit. Meanwhile, his predecessor, Tyson Chandler, had a considerably better season in New Orleans. That aside, Wallace is still a good team leader and remained a strong defensive presence for the young Bulls. Other standouts included sixth man Andres Nocioni, and rookies Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha. Thomas struggled early, but showed signs late in the season, while Sefolosha was successful at times as a defensive stopper.

By the time the playoffs rolled around, there was more talk about what the Bulls didn't do than what they had accomplished. They were heavily criticized for not pulling the trigger on a trade for Pau Gasol, a move which many thought would've put the Bulls over the edge. If nothing else, they would have done well to trade P.J. Brown's expiring contract. Despite being mentioned in Kobe Bryant trade talk, it was an uneventful off-season for Chicago. They drafted Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray, and JamesOn Curry. Noah is basically a Ben Wallace clone, at this point anyway, and will do little to help their inside-scoring woes. Gray is big enough to help in that department, but it's hard to imagine he'll play much and if he does, he may have a hard time keeping up with the rest of the team. Curry is a decent scorer, but the Bulls' backcourt is already pretty full. The only free agent signing the Bulls made was that of Joe Smith. Smith played fairly well for the Sixers last year, once he got regular playing time, but he's an injury risk and it's unlikely he'll give them much more than Brown did.

The Bulls should be an elite team in the Eastern Conference, but it's hard to see them getting to the NBA Finals. Chicago still lacks low-post scoring, which has plagued them ever since they traded Eddy Curry. They have excellent perimeter players, but teams can focus almost entirely on perimeter defense because none of the Bulls' big men are a threat to score down low. As a result, their entire offense relies on driving and kicking. This can work against a slow team that can't guard the perimeter (i.e. Miami), but against more athletic teams it makes the Bulls strictly a jump-shooting team. When the Bulls are hot, they'll be able to beat anyone, but they'll have nights when the shots aren't falling and they can lose to almost anyone. One thing the Bulls have in their favor is their rebounding, as offensive rebounds are critical to their success. Noah and Smith should help in that department. The Bulls should finish with the best record in the East, but look for another second round playoff exit.

Detroit Pistons: Many wondered how the Pistons would fare without Ben Wallace, but they silenced their critics in the regular season and finished with the best record in the East. Removing Wallace from the equation improved Detroit's offense, particularly when Chris Webber was added to the mix. Webber's passing, in particular, was a perfect fit in the Pistons offense. The area where Detroit missed Wallace the most was, predictably, shot-blocking. This came back to haunt them in the playoffs, when LeBron James led the Cavaliers, practically by himself, past the Pistons. James was able to drive to the lane at will, and as a result defeated the Pistons in the Conference Finals.

Detroit didn't make any headlines in the off-season, but they made some good moves nonetheless. The first, and most important, was re-signing Chauncey Billups. Billups' numbers were down a bit from 2005-06, but he still had a very strong season, with 17 PPG and 7.2 APG. The Pistons also gave Antonio McDyess an extension, which was a little risky considering his injury history, but they needed to do it, as McDyess will have to play a larger role this season, as Webber was let go. In the draft, Detroit took Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. Stuckey has looked outstanding so far, but he will miss 6 weeks with a hand injury. Stuckey, a combo guard with good range on his jumper, will be a major upgrade over Flip Murray. Afflalo may not get many minutes, but could find a niche as a poor man's Raja Bell.

While the Pistons are getting older, they are still one of the top teams in the East. The key to the season will likely by Rasheed Wallace, who supposedly lost 25 lbs in the off-season, which should improve his mobility and make him a more dangerous scorer. Detroit can still expect good production out of Billups and Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince could improve a bit. Detroit's biggest advantage is its size, where 'Sheed, McDyess, Jason Maxiell, and newly signed Amir Johnson should give the Pistons one of the league's better frontcourts. Detroit may have lost a step, but they'll be right in the mix for the East's best record.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers capped off a 50 win season with an impressive playoff run and a trip to the NBA Finals. Unfortunately LeBron James was in for a rude awakening there, as his team was swept convincingly by the San Antonio Spurs. While the Cavs were perceived as a one-man show, LeBron had a considerable amount of help. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao, and Donyell Marshall combined to give Cleveland one of the league's better frontcourts, while Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic emerged as scoring options in the backcourt. That said, a number of Cavs players took a step backward, most notably Larry Hughes. Hughes struggled to stay healthy and was relatively ineffective even when he was. Damon Jones had a down year and saw his playing time drop dramatically. Meanwhile, Eric Snow got a lot of minutes, despite his non-existent shooting skills and declining defense.

The Cavs had a quiet off-season, which probably frustrated James. The only significant addition was that of Devin Brown, who is a very mediocre shooting guard. Still, he is a good three-point shooter and can play a little point guard, so he should be an upgrade over Snow and Jones. However, the Cavs may have lost more than they gained. Varejao and Pavlovic remain unsigned as of yet and the two will be greatly missed in Cleveland if they do not return.

With the lack of major additions, LeBron will be very heavily depended on once again. Ilguaskas, Gooden, and Marshall remain in the frontcourt, Varejao's energy, offensive rebounding, and shot-blocking will be greatly missed. Pavlovic's three-point shooting would have been a great help as well, though Brown may be able to make up for some of it. Barring a monster season from James, the key to the Cavaliers season will be their guard play. Gibson will have to prove his playoff performance was not a fluke and Hughes will have to stay healthy and give Cleveland a reliable second scoring option.

Milwaukee Bucks: On paper, this looks like a pretty dangerous team. Michael Redd is one of the league's better scorers, Mo Williams had a breakout season last year, Andrew Bogut is a former first overall pick, and Charlie Villanueva had a strong rookie campaign. Too bad the game isn't played on paper. The Bucks struggled with injuries and inconsistency, then seemed to give up at the end of the season. While the Bucks could shoot, they were one of the worst defensive teams in the league. In the end, they finished with the third worst record in the NBA, but only had the sixth overall pick to show for it.

They used that pick on Yi Jianlian, which was nearly a disaster. Yi had not worked out for Milwaukee and had little interest in playing there, as the city does not have a large Chinese-American population and because the Bucks seemed to already have a crowded frontcourt. Eventually he was convinced to sign with the team, but only after he was promised major minutes. Yi is a very promising prospect with almost unlimited potential, but it's very difficult to know how effectively he can adjust to the NBA. Milwaukee also added Desmond Mason, who should help their defense, but provides very little on the other end. The Bucks almost lost Charlie Bell to Miami after he signed an offer sheet and asked the Bucks to let him go, but they opted to match the offer and keep him. Key losses included Ruben Patterson, who provided great energy and rebounding last season, and Earl Boykins.

The Bucks are a young and intriguing team, but they've got a ways to go. Bogut has yet to prove he was deserving of being draft first overall, Villanueva has been very inconsistent, and no one knows what to expect from Yi. One has to wonder if chemistry will be an issue, as Yi takes some of Villanueva's minutes. If the entire team can mesh and stay healthy, the Bucks might be able to fight for a low seed in the playoffs, but odds are they'll be making another trip to the lottery.

Indiana Pacers:
The Pacers struggled mightily last season, particularly after an eight player trade with Golden State that sent Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson to Oakland for Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Ike Diogu. While Diogu is still very young and could develop, Dunleavy and Murphy played terribly and it's unlikely they'll be any better this year. Jermaine O'Neal was by far the Pacers best player, particularly on the defensive end where he was among the best in the league, but he had a down year on offense. Danny Granger had a decent season and Darrell Armstrong was surprisingly productive, but Indiana had very little going for them.

In the off-season, O'Neal was discussed in many potential trades, including a popular scenario where he paired with Kobe Bryant in LA, but nothing came of it and he'll be back with the Pacers this season. The biggest move the Pacers actually made was firing Rick Carlisle and replacing him with Jim O'Brien. O'Brien is a capable coach and he ought to improve Indiana's offense, simply because it can't get much worse. The only other additions of note were Travis Diener and Kareem Rush. Both are good shooters and should help the Pacers at guard, but neither is good enough to play major minutes.

One has to wonder how long it will be before O'Neal is traded, as his value is only going to decline at this point and the Pacers are far from contention. Whether or not O'Neal is dealt will be the difference between finishing 4th in the division or last in the conference. Either way, this is going to be an ugly season for Indiana unless they get major improvement out of Granger and a few other young players.

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