NBA Preview: Southwest Division

(Teams listed in order of projected finish)

Houston Rockets: The Rockets managed to stay healthy for a change last year and made the playoffs after a one-year absence. Yao Ming missed 34 games, but was outstanding when healthy, and Tracy McGrady had another strong season. Shane Battier provided good defense and stellar three-point shooting, giving the Rockets some stability on the wing alongside McGrady. Luther Head and, to a lesser degree, Rafer Alston chipped in with their outside shooting, which strained opposing defenses that tried double-teaming McGrady and Yao. While Battier quickly found a niche, the team's two other significant additions were ineffective or absent. Bonzi Wells never fell in line with Jeff Van Gundy and only played in 28 games, while Greek import Vassilis Spanoulis struggled early and never cracked the rotation. The Rockets certainly could have used Wells' rebounding in the playoffs, when they were out-muscled by Carlos Boozer and the Jazz, who defeated Houston in seven games.

That spelled the end for Van Gundy, who was replaced by former Kings coach Rick Adelman. While Adelman has never been known for his playoff success, he is known as a far better offensive coach than Van Gundy. Adelman should be able to infuse some life into Houston's offense and he should benefit from the defense instilled in the team by Van Gundy. Meanwhile, the Rockets made some additions to their roster that should vastly improve their depth. After suffering through another season with Juwan Howard as their power forward, the Rockets dealt the disappointing Spanoulis to the Spurs for Luis Scola, who was generally considered to be the best basketball player not in the NBA. They also got Jackie Butler in the deal; a young big man with some upside. As for Howard, he was dealt to Minnesota for Mike James, who ought to benefit from a limited role following a down year in 2006-07. As if that wasn't enough, the Rockets also signed Steve Francis and drafted Aaron Brooks. They also added to their depth at power forward by taking Carl Landry in the second round.

The Rockets were a dangerous team last year and now, with all their additions, they should be among the league's elite. There are serious concerns about whether McGrady and Yao can stay healthy, but it should be easier as there should be less pressure on them to carry the scoring load. Adelman should make the offense play at a faster pace, which, if nothing else, should be more pleasant to watch. The coaching change will also help in that it should get Wells on the same page as the rest of the team. Wells had a nice season (and a great playoff series) in 2005-06, playing for Adelman's Kings and he should give the Rockets some more rebounding and inside scoring. Scola is a strong rebounder and has a decent mid-range jump shot, which should play very well alongside Yao. Even if he doesn't live up to his hype, he can't be much worse than Howard. Meanwhile, Adelman will have a ton of options at guard, where he'll now have McGrady, Alston, Head, James, Francis, and Brooks at his disposal. That may turn out to be a bit too many options, as it's hard to see how Adelman can get all these players consistent minutes (likely leaving Brooks the odd man out). Still, the Rockets have excellent depth and versatility, which is a recipe for success. They have never been better suited to handle injuries to their two superstars. As a result, the Rockets should make a run for the West's top seed in the playoffs, though playing 3 games apiece against Dallas and San Antonio might drop them to #2 in the conference.

Dallas Mavericks: After blowing a 2-0 lead in the 2006 Finals to the Miami Heat, the Mavs resisted temptation to blow the team up, and with good reason. They already had a very solid core, with a good mixture of youth and veteran talent. It certainly looked like the right decision in the regular season, when Dallas won 67 games, giving them the best record in the league. Dirk Nowitski and Josh Howard had All-Star seasons and Dirk wound up winning the MVP. Yet it all fell apart in the playoffs when they were defeated by the upstart Golden State Warriors. The Warriors had plagued the Mavs all season, thanks to favorable matchups and Don Nelson's knowledge of the Mavs, his former team. The Warriors were able to win because Dallas lacked consistent low-post scoring, which allowed the smaller, faster Warriors to force Dallas into settling for contested jumpers, while Golden State bombed away from outside on offense.

Once again, there was talk that owner Mark Cuban would tear the team apart after the frustrating defeat, but again he refrained. While Dallas didn't make any major moves in the off-season, they made a few minor ones that should pay dividends. Dallas signed Eddie Jones, who should find his way into the rotation. While he's not the player he used to be, he still has a decent shot and is a capable defender. Dallas also dealt Greg Buckner to Minnesota for Trenton Hassell, who should be the defensive stopper they had once hoped Buckner would be. In the draft, the Mavs selected Nick Fazekas, whose shooting should get him some playing time. Other than that, it's the same team that won 67 games last year. There's little reason to think Dallas will be any worse, except that they will be under pressure to perform. Cuban stood by this off-season, but if Dallas doesn't reach the Finals (or maybe the Conference Finals) there will almost certainly be major changes.

San Antonio Spurs: In a typical Spurs season, Tim Duncan and Co. chugged along, putting up a great record under the radar, as analysts focused on Phoenix's run-and-gun offense and Dallas' run at 70 wins. The Spurs finished with 58 wins, which was good for a #3 seed. Tim Duncan was superb, again, but the attention went to Tony Parker who averaged a career-high 18.6 PPG (plus made wedding plans with Eva Longoria). The Spurs were much healthier than they had been in recent years, likely aided by the fact that neither Duncan nor Manu Ginobili took part in international competition in the off-season. San Antonio had as much depth as any team in the league and was also extremely versatile. This paid off in the playoffs as they were able to beat teams with different styles of play, whether it was Phoenix's speed, Utah's size, or Cleveland's...well, never mind. The Cavaliers couldn't put up much resistance, as the Spurs swept the Finals and won their third title in five years.

No one can blame the Spurs for standing pat in the off-season, after winning the title, but the Spurs did make a few minor moves that could pay off. The most significant was the signing of Ime Udoka, who played for Portland last year. Udoka won't get much attention, but he is an excellent perimeter defender who can hit corner 3s. Sound familiar? True, Udoka is basically a Bruce Bowen clone, but Bowen is now 37 and the Spurs did well to find someone who can spell him or take over in the event of an injury. Through the draft, San Antonio added Tiago Splitter and Marcus Williams. Splitter will spend some more time overseas, but should be a big help when he makes the jump to the NBA. Williams probably won't get much playing time, but he's only 20 and might develop into a role player in the next few years.

It may seem a bit odd to pick the defending champs to finish third in the division, but A) the Southwest is no ordinary division, and B) the Spurs don't play for the regular season. Not to say San Antonio is going to go the Shaq route and slack off until the playoffs, but Popovich is smart enough to know that it's not worth exhausting his players for a few extra regular season wins when the Spurs are a lock for the playoffs anyway. The Spurs are still the team to beat when the playoffs arrive. Once again, Duncan and Ginobili should be well-rested, which was a key to last season's success. Age is a moderate concern, as all the Spurs' best players, save Tony Parker, are 30 or older, but the Spurs are so deep that it shouldn't be a major issue. Even with all the other storylines out there, don't sleep on the Spurs. This could be the year they repeat.

New Orleans Hornets: A phenomenal rookie season from Chris Paul combined with the off-sesaon additions of Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler had many picking the Hornets to reach the playoffs, even in the loaded Southwest Division. Paul had another fine season, with 17 PPG and 8.8 APG, but missed 17 games due to injury. This was a common theme for the Hornets, as David West and Bobby Jackson also missed considerable time, not to mention Stojakovic who only played in 13 games. The Hornets still finished with 39 wins, which is respectable considering their poor health. Part of this success was due to Chandler, who had a breakout year, averaging 12.4 RPG. That said, it was hardly the progress the team had hoped for.

In a fairly uneventful off-season, New Orleans biggest move was replacing Desmond Mason with Morris Peterson. While Mason's high-flying act was entertaining alongside Paul, his poor shooting only made the Stojakovic injury more painful. Peterson is a stellar three-point shooter and he and Stojakovic will really stretch opposing defenses. Through the draft, the Hornets added Julian Wright and Adam Haluska. Wright is a good ball-handler who can score around the basket, but his shooting might actually be worse than that of Mason. Of course, he won't play as many minutes as Mason did, so it should be less of an issue. Haluska is unlikely to see the court much, though if he does he should knock down a few jumpers.

The Hornets might have found a way into the playoffs last year, were it not for all the injuries, so it's very reasonable to expect a low seed this year. That said, these injuries may not have been flukes. Stojakovic is now 30 and has only had one season when he played more than 75 games in his career (though he had never missed such a large part of a season before), so this could be an emerging trend for him. Paul is another likely candidate to suffer from injuries consistently because of his size and style of play. It's very difficult for small guards to stay healthy, especially those who rely on scoring in the paint and at the free throw line, and one has to wonder how the 6'0" 175 lb. Paul will hold up, not just this year, but in his career. And don't bring up Allen Iverson. He's the exception that proves the rule. If they can stay healthy, the Hornets could reach as high as a 7 seed, but expect them to just miss again.

Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis' 2006-07 season was doomed from the start, as Pau Gasol missed the beginning of the year due to an off-season injury. By the time he got back, the team was in the dumps and Gasol was leading the league in trade rumors. Adding to the frustration was an injury to Kyle Lowry, leaving the Grizzlies with a combination of Chucky Atkins and Damon Stoudamire at point guard. While Atkins had a decent year, this would have been a great chance to get Lowry some action and see what they really had. They were able to get a good look at another rookie, Rudy Gay, who averaged 10.8 PPG and showed flashes of his excellent potential. Mike Miller and Hakim Warrick also had productive seasons, but they didn't mean much in the win column, as Memphis finished with the worst record in the league.

Bad luck in the lottery landed them the fourth overall pick, which they used to select Mike Conley Jr. While it may spell the end for Lowry, the Grizzlies got the best point guard in the draft in Conley. Memphis also acquired Juan Carlos Navarro, after letting Atkins depart via free agency. Navarro was one of the best guards in Europe and, more importantly, he is a good friend of Gasol's, who was questioning the team's direction and had expressed the desire to leave before this move. Another key addition was that of Darko Milicic to a three-year deal, who, despite his disappointing career thus far, still has a great deal of upside. If Darko has a breakout season during the three-year period, he'll give the Grizzlies a very formidable frontcourt. If not, they can let him go and won't have suffered much, as these are rebuilding seasons anyway.

While Memphis won't be as bad as last season, they'll still be a lottery team, barring a monster season from Gasol. Adding Conley and Navarro, plus having a healthy Lowry, will improve their guard play, and Gay can be expected to improve in his sophomore year. Other than that, it's hard to see anyone on the Grizzlies take a major step forward (unless Darko finally lives up to his supposed potential). One also has to wonder if Gasol will finally be traded. Even with Navarro on board, he's 27 and may want to play for a contender, rather than wait for his young teammates to develop. Memphis might want to consider such a move, as it would give them more assets for the future, plus would likely result in other top five draft pick.