NBA Finals Preview

I'm going to be a little unorthodox and start my preview with my series prediction. I'm taking the Spurs in 6. Now that I've told you who will win, I'll defend it. Just figured I'd save you the suspense. You're welcome.

The Cavaliers have a couple things going for them in this series, so I'll get those out of the way so I can explain why the Spurs will beat them:
1) San Antonio has no one defender who can stop LeBron James. Bruce Bowen is just too small. To be fair, I'm not sure there is anyone who can stop King James one-on-one right now.
2) Cleveland went 2-0 against the Spurs in the regular season and between Mike Brown and Danny Ferry, no front office is more familiar with San Antonio.
3) In Cleveland's regular season wins vs San Antonio, Sasha Pavlovic and Daniel Gibson had yet to crack the Cavs rotation. Both have been key for Cleveland in the playoffs and San Antonio has yet to get a good look at them.
4) LeBron showed against Detroit that he can lead his team to a win whether the defense plays him one-on-one or sends the whole team at him.

That looks like a good set of advantages for Cleveland. LeBron will either score on Bowen or pass out of the double team and let his teammates beat the Spurs, the coaching staff is familiar with the Spurs, and the Cavs have two new weapons that the Spurs have not seen...Not so fast. The Spurs are not the Pistons. They are incredibly disciplined and well-coached with Gregg Popovich at the helm. The approach the Spurs will probably take will be to take the rest of the Cavs out of the offense. Let LeBron have his 35. If they play everyone one-on-one, who else is going to score? I'll run down the Cavs other offensive options.

Daniel Gibson: He got everyone's attention after his 31 point Game 6, but most of those points came off open three-pointers. If any Cavs role player can score by creating his own shot, it's him, but he doesn't have the post-up game to take advantage of Tony Parker.
Drew Gooden: It's doubtful he can do much against Tim Duncan, especially considering how much energy he'll have to expend defending Duncan on the other end.
Larry Hughes: Since his injury he has not been explosive off the dribble, which is bad news for Cleveland because he scored 18 points in each of the regular season meetings.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas: He'll be a liability on defense, especially if the Spurs go small. Chris Webber ran rings around him, so Duncan won't have much trouble. If he draws Robery Horry or Francisco Elson he might be able to be productive on offense, but there's a good chance the Spurs bring in a small lineup and will make it hard for Mike Brown to keep him in the game.
The rest: Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones are useless if they don't get open looks, Varejao will set some good picks for LeBron, but the Spurs will either recover or switch, neutralizing the advantage, and Pavlovic and Eric Snow cannot be counted on for anything more than defense.

If LeBron thought it was tough putting his team on his shoulders and carrying them against Detroit, he has no idea what he's in for. If the Spurs force Cleveland's role players to beat them, he'll need to average something in the realm of 40 points per game. Not to mention the fact that those free throws attempts he got against Detroit will not come so easily, as San Antonio does not send their opponents to the line that often, as Allen Iverson found out in the first round. Plus, in Duncan the Spurs have a legitimate shot-blocker who can give LeBron a little trouble.

The Cavaliers are going to have their work cut out for them on defense as well. Gooden and Varejao might be able to do decent work on Duncan, but Ilgauskas does not stand much of a chance. However the biggest mismatch will be Tony Parker, who scored 20+ points in each of the regular season meetings. Yes, the Cavs shut down Chauncey Billups, but Parker is a completely different type of player. Billups gets his points on three-point shooting and by posting up smaller guards. He was unable to back down the Cavs guards due to the size of Larry Hughes and the strength of Daniel Gibson. Parker is smaller and quicker than the Cavs guards. Hughes doesn't have much chance of staying with him, especially playing hurt. Even defensive specialist Eric Snow is probably too slow, though he might see significant time on Manu Ginobili. Gibson is Cleveland's only hope of staying with Parker, and that's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie. Even if he does play effective defense on Parker, odds are expending all that energy will hurt his offensive production. Ginobili could be an X-factor, as the Cavs have some decent defenders to throw at him in Hughes, Pavlovic, and Snow, not to mention James, who played great defense on Tayshaun Prince in the last round. Michael Finley could also give the Cavs a little trouble, but more importantly, Ginobili, Finley, Bowen, Brent Barry, and Horry will all stretch the Cleveland defense with their three-point shooting ability.

Another key to the series will be the pace. While Cleveland is content to play a slower halfcourt-oriented game, using their size and offensive rebounding to their advantage, the Spurs can and will play fast-paced small-ball. With a small lineup of shooters, the Spurs can stretch the defense, giving Duncan more room to operate and also push the tempo, outrunning and wearing down the thin Cavaliers bench.

Bottom line: While LeBron James gives Cleveland a legitimate shot to beat the Spurs, San Antonio has too many weapons and is too well-disciplined, not to mention well-rested, to lose to this upstart Cleveland team.

That said, I'm pulling for the Cavs. If they do manage to win, this could be the start of something huge, both for Cleveland and the NBA.