Who's Number One?

There's been a lot of speculation lately regarding who the Portland Trail Blazers will select with the first pick in the NBA Draft. Up until recently it's seemed a foregone conclusion that they would take Greg Oden, but now comments by GM Kevin Pritchard and analysis by ESPN writers such as Bill Simmons and John Hollinger (both of whom I usually agree with) make it sound like the Blazers are seriously considering Kevin Durant.

While Durant looks like he'll make a very good pro, Pritchard has to make the sensible pick. In all fairness, Pritchard owes it to his fans to take a good long look at Durant, who is a more marketable player than Oden. It has long been the case that big men win championships, but, as Wilt Chamberlain once said, "Nobody roots for Goliath," and as a result, the smaller, quicker players are always going to be more popular. But the NBA Draft shouldn't be a popularity contest.

A major reason that Durant is getting heralded as the best player in the draft is that he is unique. There isn't really anyone to compare him with. He's a better shooter than Kevin Garnett, more athletic than Dirk Nowitski, bigger than Tracy McGrady, etc. This makes fans start to wonder what he really is and adds a ton of hype. Well guess what? Just because he's unique doesn't mean he's better than all of the aforementioned players. There was never a player like Nowitski before his arrival, but does that mean he's better than Tim Duncan?

If Durant develops to his full potential, the sky's the limit. He could become impossible to guard and could lead the league in scoring multiple times. But "if" and "could" are the key words there. It's also completely possible that he'll never add the muscle he needs to play power forward and yet still lack the quickness to stay with quicker small forwards. As it is, he is rail-thin and could get abused by bigger players on the defensive end, plus his lack of size could make him strictly into a jump-shooter, limiting his offense. And it's entirely possible he'll give up as many points as he scores if his defense doesn't vastly improve.

I'm not saying all this will happen, just that it's a possibility. My point is that Durant is far from guaranteed to be a great player. Oden, on the other hand, is as close to a sure thing as you can get. He's a legit seven-footer with incredible athleticism, he'll immediately be one of the best shot-blockers and defenders in the NBA, and he'll be a better scorer than he was in college because he was playing with a wrist injury all of last season. Oden's best-case scenario (an Olajuwon-Duncan-Robinson hybrid) is just as good as Durant's and his worst-case scenario (a Mourning/Mutombo type, barring injury of course) is much better.

Another big reason so many are calling for Portland to draft Durant is that Durant would fill more of a need for the Blazers, who already have Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge in the paint. Adding Oden effectively forces the Blazers to trade one of them (likely Randolph) to make room. Hmm, drafting an inferior player because he's a better fit. What does that remind me of? Oh, I know. The 1984 draft when Portland took Sam Bowie #2 overall because he was a better fit than some guy named Michael Jordan.

(And if you're thinking of countering that with, "See? The '84 draft was a classic example of the perimeter player being the better pick than the big man," well sorry. No dice. Yes, Jordan was better than both Bowie, whose career was ruined by injuries, and #1 selection Hakeem Olajuwon, but Jordan is the ultimate exception. There never has been a perimeter player who dominated the league like Jordan. If Kevin Pritchard is completely convinced that Durant is the second perimeter player ever who is capable of doing so, then go ahead and take him, but if Durant is anything short of Jordan-esque, it would be a big mistake.)

My point isn't that big men are always better, it's that with the top pick in the draft, you take the best player and not the best fit. Don't you think Portland would have rather taken their chances with Jordan and Clyde Drexler and found a way to make it work, or even trade Drexler, rather than taking Bowie? Even if Bowie had lived up to expectations, Jordan was the more promising prospect and he would have been the #2 overall pick if the Blazers didn't already have Drexler.

It would have been more convenient for Portland if they had gotten the second selection. They could have had Durant (Seattle would not have had a hard time choosing) and he would have fit in with the team they have already. Now Pritchard's job is a little harder. He has to make a choice and if he makes the right choice, he'll have to work out a favorable deal to unload Zach Randolph. Poor guy. I think once Oden guides Portland to the playoffs...again and again...he'll get over it.